There's so much that feels unsettled. The generative A.I. evolution is pushing everything else off to the side when it comes to content for business publications and technical websites. A financial analyst even went so far to suggest that Apple is lagging behind in A.I. and its stock price will get nicked as a result. (I would never count Apple out. They can buy their way to the top of the A.I. mountain). Most people who are writing on the subject are pretty glum, bordering on paranoid. I'm not sure where I land on the whole wide spectrum of angst about our computer overlords but I'm not as optimistic as Chase Jarvis who wrote recently about this just being another step, like the move to digital and the popularity of smart phones. A step that savvy creatives might use to their advantage (hmmmm.). Capitalism has a way of weaponizing new technology directly against its own participants. And many big companies love racing to the bottom when it comes to cost cutting; human capital be damned.
I hate to use the phrase: "It's different this time." But since A.I. covers so much of the work landscape already, from call center prompting and automated phone response systems, to online service chats, to writing everything from marketing copy to technical briefs and certainly, soon, also novels, screenplays and so much more, I can only imagine that anything that's not subjective but is fact based, like accounting and radiology, even law is going to get slammed as far as human pay scale value goes. And in the realm of continuing careers and job tenure.. .. .. . (my ellipse fascination is just a ploy to trick the A.I. learning algorithms into screwing up... . .. ) I think we're about to see a very different kind of disruption than we have in the past mostly because this one will affect white collar workers to a tremendous degree. Another metric to be factored into the decline of the value of a university degree. The working press is seeing evidence of this across industries already.
This doesn't begin to cover the destruction of democracy that deep fakes and endless but highly believable visual and aural misinformation destined to come blasting out of the fire hoses of the internet in order to push bad agendas. And both sides of the political system should be equally worried, including the bad guys who already have a history of endless lying in the service of greed and power...
How it affects photography and how that affect affects you personally will depend on whether you do work for money or you do photography for the fun of the process and the joy of sometimes getting great results. I'll wager that with working photographers if you don't hit two or three must have skill sets in the next year (tops) your days of making $$$ from owning and knowing how to operate a camera and work in PhotoShop are quickly coming to an end. I'll bet that the demand for video of all kinds will continue to explode and, for a few years at least, the ability and patience to navigate creating in collaboration with A.I. will be sellable. Once processor power makes A.I. video creation widely available then all bets are off. Personally, if you've done your financial homework and have saved adequately this might be a good time to step away from the business. If you're still in your working and must earning years you might consider re-aiming or re-training for a new business target that depends less on your skills at knowing your way around a keyboard and a camera menu and much more about critical jobs that people need and can't do for themselves.
And if you are securely retired and doing photos for fun you should count yourself lucky and more lucky. Because you don't have to change a single thing that you are doing right now. Keep shooting that 8x10 black and white sheet film. We love it.
If I were counseling a young person about career choices and they lived in Texas I can almost guarantee that all but the top 10% of students will, over their lifetimes, do a lot better in the skilled trades than in business administration, advertising, information processing and the like. Plumbers never go bankrupt because when one's toilet is overflowing or a pipe has burst in a wall people will pay whatever they have to in order to get stuff fixed. Ditto electricians. Ditto air conditioner and heater install/repair people. No, I fear for anyone who works with information. From teachers to bank staff to psychiatrists. Everything can be eventually overtaken by ever evolving A.I.
I've decided to pretend that the only thing that will change in my business is the steady loss of clients and revenue. Other than that I intend to go merrily along, buying random zany lenses, titillating camera bodies and new breeds of lights. After all, my paranoia could be totally misplaced and the value of a human point of view might come to be cherished and considered luxe in the future. I'll hope for the best and the rest of the time I'll shoot what I like.
And swim. And do strength training. And read inane blogs. And take long walks. This is the way of all things.
Welcome to work place dystopia.
20 comments:
You do B & W and all the in-between tones - very nice indeed.
So far it's a tool that can be used for good or evil (like all tools). Also silliness. I asked ChatGtp to write an argument in favor of rent control in Duluth, MN, and after a couple adjustments, I had a pretty good attempt, in its "freshman comp" style. I could also ask it to write one in opposition, and it would do equally well. I could probably ask it to write a letter to my city councilor about potholes, and they would not know at all.
If I see AI start to fill those potholes, then we are getting somewhere. For now though, I think we are mostly playing with computers.
The editor of Current Affairs Magazine is getting quite good at his visual creations...
https://www.instagram.com/esotericartifice/
Re outcome of AI: "We'll see."
One of the may versions of the Chinese proverb:
https://impossiblehq.com/well-see/
One of the pioneers of AI just quit Google today, stating that he was deeply concerned about how it his evolved over the decades and that the potential for AI causing social harm has become severe. I am starting to see the same warnings coming out of MIT, which pioneered AI decades ago with Marvin Minsky et al. When the AI leaders are publicly expressing concerns about their own field, I believe that it’s time to take notice.
OTOH. AI may be like nuclear weapons. Once the genie is out of the bottle, it becomes a question of do unto others before they do unto you and then one pauses at one’s peril. We really do need some sort of pause to find consensus social policy on this.
Time for a new band of Luddites?
You are absolutely right, plumbers, electricians and heating engineers are the new elite in the UK. Good luck getting an AI application to change a tap washer or boiler or re-wire a house.Ever since I was young the pundits have been talking about the "leisure society" and yet most people in the UK seem to be working longer hours than ever. Looks like AI may create this society for most people whether they want it or not! However expect some push back as it is now the elites that are being threatened. Nobody seemed to care very much when the mines and factories closed and traditional working class people lost their jobs. This time it is different . . . there will be blood!!!
Previous technological revolutions have replaced muscle power. Think how many fewer horses are working today compared to 1900. The advantage we had was brain power, so we adapted and survived. AI seems set to take a lot of that away. So you are right, all of us living off our brain power are under threat. I also agree that the truth has now gone out of the window, we won't be able to tell in future what is the truth and what is a lie. Concerning times!
The thing I forgot to add is: if those of us who, generally, have money to spend on luxuries all lose our jobs what does that mean for the economy? Who's going to have money to spend? We can't all become plumbers.
Great post and very well thought out and written. You are correct about everything here. I'm at the end of my teaching career so I'll be able to ride this out and head off into retirement. Skilled trades are an absolute gold mine. If I were a young guy with my life in front of me I'd learn a trade, get really good at it and then start my own business. I know many skilled tradesmen, many of them family members. Most of them, older now, are very wealthy. Those who think this is merely progress and these are just computer programs are sorely mistaken. I've seen first-hand what social media has done to our youth (it's not good, it's frightening actually). AI is the next step and most of us are going to be blindsided by it. Those with nefarious intentions are already ahead of the curve with this.
AI: The Alarmists are Worried about the Wrong Thing. https://friedmanarchives.blogspot.com/2023/01/ai-alarmists-are-worried-about-wrong.html
I have to agree with Gary's blog piece (link in his post above). AI has already been ruining lives for a while. The things is, I'm not anti-technology at all. Generally, as long as my budget could afford it, I've been an early or second-generation adopter. Technology (AI and beyond) produces tools that are neither good nor bad - it's how humans choose to deploy those tools that makes the difference. And, because humans love making and saving money (almost to the exclusion of all else), the way they have been choosing to deploy technology is becoming more and more of a problem. Over the past decade or so, technology has gone from helpful to intrusive. We are being tracked and marketed to at every turn. The concept of privacy is a quaint, outdated notion. There has to be some kind of pushback.
As far as facts go, a while back I asked ChatGPT: "Does ChatGPT always tell the truth?"
ChatGPT replied:
"As an AI language model, I always strive to provide accurate and truthful responses to the best of my abilities based on the data and knowledge that I have been trained on. However, it's important to note that my responses are ultimately generated by algorithms and may not always be completely accurate or appropriate for every situation. Additionally, I do not have the ability to fact-check information provided to me by users, so it's possible that I may inadvertently convey inaccurate information. Therefore, it is always a good idea to verify information from multiple sources and use critical thinking when evaluating the accuracy and reliability of any information provided."
So there's that. I find it interesting that the thing refers to itself as "I".
In another trial I was stuck for ideas for writing a professional profile, so I asked the AI for help. Within seconds it kicked out a very professional and polished profile and resume, including 20 years of fictional work experience, a degree I do not hold from a university I never attended, and awards I never won.
I could use it to run for congress.
Where can I find a titillating/shift lens?
Clayton for the win.
What concerns me most is that people by nature are excellent procrastinators. The evolution of AI is improving faster than most people can imagine. By the time it dawns on paralegals, computer programmers, etc., that they need to retrain for another career they will have lost their jobs.
As far as the possibility of robots taking over, already there was a test conducted where an AI program contacted a human to do a simple task (ex., solve a CAPTCHA test). The human was suspicious and asked if the task requestor was a robot. The AI program lied and said it was not a robot in order to accomplish its goal.
Programmers won't be affected much. See my other blog post on the topic. :-)
https://friedmanarchives.blogspot.com/2023/02/geeking-with-gary-can-chatgpt-write-code.html
OTOH, maybe social media will so cheapened by AI that no one will use it and it will disappear. Maybe fact-checked source-backed press rooms will return to the forefront. Maybe music streaming services will become so homogenized and overpriced that people will learn to play musical instruments and get together to jam instead. Maybe someone will develop an AI that will detect bs ad lies instead of inventing it. Maybe.
Uh oh. Maybe all those survivalist, bushcraft, off-the-grid bunker builders were right.
The trades have been a goldmine for a while, if you don't mind a shorter life span. Most plumbers I've known are somewhat screwed up by the time they hit their 50s. Look at their hands sometime. It's a rough job. Same with other rough jobs.
I worked in Israel for a few weeks a year for fifteen years. One thing I noticed about their society is that the trades are fairly rudimentary -- it's tough getting a competent plumber or electrician. Plumbers do make a lot of money in Israel -- they basically can set any price they want, and get it -- but the problem is, they have no status. Status goes to professionals -- lawyers, doctors, businessmen, professors. And status is very important in that society. More important than money.
I think AI is way overblown. The reason that it's way overblown is that the communicators among us see AI coming for their jobs -- or fear that it is, so they're raising alarms. Wasn't so much of an existential crisis when robots came for assembly lines, because the displaced persons weren't good communicators. Kirk knows a lot more about photography than I do, but while sitting in my smallest room, reading a single copy of Architectural Digest, I couldn't help noticing that the magazine contained hundreds of photographs. Not a few, but hundreds. There are still people making a living with a camera.
We're listening to 1984 as i 'type'. Orwellian!
AI* will likely limit my imaging-software updates; can I even trust open-source Darktable to stay uncontaminated? And maybe it will free an hour of every day that I invest (rather poorly) in news sites.
Yay!
* Using initials is nice .. . everyone assumes I=intelligence when they see me use it.
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