An embarrassment of riches. So much, so soon.

Kirk's predictions from last week: 

"Canon will see the writing on the wall and come at the mirrorless market in two directions.  First they'll pump up their G family and add cameras in the $600+ market that are akin to the Fuji X10.  Bigger and quieter sensors, more in cameras processing and an ability to go toe to toe, in good light, with everyone's entry level APS-C cameras and m4:3rds cameras."

What I like about the new camera:  The big, fat sensor.

The two things that will kill the appeal of the G1x for me:  f5.8 at the long end of the zoom.  The same crappy style .80X optical viewfinder.  With an EVF it would have had a chance....
And from Fuji....

"8.  The current year will become known as the amazing year of prime lenses!  The m4:3rds market got off to a rough start when the only option for lenses was a handful of tame, mid-focal length zooms with apertures that started at 3.5 and quickly rushed to 5.6.  Couple a smaller sensor, increased depth of field and increased high ISO noise with a crippled optic and it's hard to make the whole package an easy sell.  Then one lens turned around the whole space.  Panasonic launched the brilliant 20mm 1.7 pancake lens for the format and sales started soaring.  The best implementation of this lens is on the Pen EP-3.  The camera provides really good image stabilization while the lens gives back high sharpness at an aperture almost guaranteed to ameliorate the need to go to nose bleed ISO's to capture everyday images.  And, did I mention the high sharpness wide open?

It didn't take the manufacturers long to learn the lesson and now, Alpha-Blogger, Michael Johnston, has named the recently launched 45mm f1.8 Olympus Pen
 lens as his "lens of the year."  It's fast.  It's sharp.  It's cute and cuddly.  And it works on more than one camera system.  If Olympus have fatally shot themselves in their own foot the lens will work just as well on the Panasonic m4:3 camera offerings.  (See points 5 and 6 above.  These cameras may be all you need).  Hurray for open systems.  This time....

The 45mm was followed by an amazing 12mm (24mm equivalent) and, in the Panasonic camp, a Leica branded 25mm f1.4 that's gotten the kinds of lens reviews usually offered only for the most elite and expensive of optics.  In fact, the one review I recently read was extremely boring.  It basically said:  "Sharp and perfect across the frame, wide open and stopped down.  No weaknesses that we could see."

How popular is the use of prime lenses on the mirrorless cameras (including Sony's, Olympus and Panasonic)???? Leica is currently in an extreme backorder situation with nearly all of their "M" optics, and since M9 camera sales haven't followed the same curve it only stands to reason that those lenses are ending up on something.  That something seems to be inexpensive mirrorless cameras.  Great sensors coupled with exhilarating optics in small packages.  Isn't that what the great documentary photographers always wanted?"

My take on the Fuji? :  The new Leica.  The Leica for this generation.  All primes all the time.  This camera is then next step from film cameras like the Contax G2.  If they fixed the little gotcha's from the X100 operation controls this camera is destined to be the "go to" camera for pro's who don't do sports. (PWDDS).  Can you say "fast maximum apertures."?  That with a great sensor might just be the holy grail of the street shooting, take anywhere, walk about (not "photowalk") camera.  It would also make a great travel camera.


So, after seeing all the new stuff, and after having a GH2 for a week, which one am I going to run out and buy?  None of the above.  I'm liking this 4:3rds stuff and my next purchase will probably be one of these.  

Small, nice EVF, nice form factor, great price, great sensor, really good higher ISO performance.  And did I mention "great price."?  If I buy anything at all it's bound to be more lenses.  But for which system...?

Just a quick update as I looked around the web today.  

By the way, since we're all way too focused on the smaller cameras lately, has anyone checked out what uber-flash master, David Hobby, is up to lately? Camera-wise?  Yep.  He plunked down for a medium format digital machine.  Mamiya with a Phase One back and a light smattering of lenses.   I look forward to hearing more:  http://strobist.blogspot.com/2012/01/bailing-on-nikon-d4.html  Check out how good he is at rationalizing stuff...


Take Bodhi Bike Downtown. Take Pictures. Drink Coffee. Eat Pizza. Come Home.

Nikon V1 with 30-110mm lens.   Loved the lipstick on the Nissan Leaf Demo person.  She was happy to pose for a close up.
Nikon V1 with 30-110mm.  Face Detection AF.  A face to go with the lips.

Same Camera information.  Context.

Same Camera Info.  The weather was mild today.  2nd Street was busier than I've ever seen it during a Sunday afternoon.

Every side walk table was filled and the crowd was buzzing.

What's not to like about Eggs Benedict and mimosas?

The Barrista at Caffe Medici was very patient and very busy.

It was the Congress Ave. location.  The cappuccino was perfect.
The in-lense IS was doing a great job at 1/15th of a second.

Caffe Medici patron catches me snapping a candid.  Auto everything.

I think the Nikon V1 does really nice skin tones.  Right out of the camera.  And I think the 30-110mm lens is sweet.  

Cups at the ready.  Nice focus on the second cup.  Right where I wanted it.

Yes.  The Nikon V1 with the 30-110mm will do nice close up photos.  This is one of those grills on the front of a ticket booth.  I photograph it when I walk by.  I'm waiting for it to change into something else.

I like urban art and I like hot dogs.  This is on the side of "Frank's."  It's a downtown restaurant that specializes in hot dogs.  And it's really good.

V1 does signage.

It was a short trip downtown.  I liked seeing a lot of other people riding their bikes around in the middle of the winter.

I didn't have much in the way of photographic intentions when I hoped on my ultra-hip Bodhi Bike (electric and human powered, two wheeled transportation) and blazed through the steep hills west of the city and down through the park.  I was coming up to the railroad tracks that run perpendicular to Lamar Blvd. between Cesar Chavez and Second Street when I ran into my photographer friend, Andy.  He was out walking with his small cameras and we decided to walk through downtown together.  

I parked the bike in the parking garage at Whole Foods and we headed out.   Five minutes later we ran into another mutual photographer friend, Frank, and altogether we wandered into downtown.  Frank was using his Olympus EP3 and alternating between his 12mm lens and the 45mm 1.8.  Andy was using two EPL1 cameras outfitted with a 20mm Panasonic 1.7 and the 45mm 1.8 Pen lens.  I was the odd man out with my Nikon V1 and the 30-110mm lens.  

We ended up at my favorite coffee bar, Caffe Medici, and renewed our caffeine dosages.  We ventured over to the traveling, Nissan Leaf, demonstration near Frank's Hot Dog restaurant and then wound our way back to Sixth and Lamar.  It was a cool, grey day with a really nice energy to it.  We split up and I made my way back to Whole Foods for a slice of pizza and a glass of water.  Then the bike ride back through the hills.

Didn't get much done today but it was so much fun to get out, see friends and relax.  I'll try to do something constructive tomorrow.  But fun counts just fine in my book.

An aside:  I wrote column for TOP yesterday.  It got comments.  One comment was from a person writing from India who, essentially, took me to task for not making a definiitive choice between the Nikon V1, the Olympus Pen EP3 and the Panasonic GH2.  He could not see why a professional photographer would ever need to own more than two cameras, total.  He suggested that even one camera would be a month's worth of wages.  I forget sometimes how privileged we are and how culturally contextual writing can be.  

I'll fix it in post.

1000 bulb LED light at a good price.

I bought one of these for $400 from Amazon over a year ago when I started writing my book on LED Lighting for Photographers.  I use it all the time for still life and beautiful black and white portraits in the studio.  I was amazed to find them today, on Amazon, for a bit over $200.  I ordered another one for myself.  I'm not saying this light is for everyone.  It's big and heavy (all metal).  But if you wanted to stick a toe into the LED "waters" it sure wouldn't be a bad place to start.

Update:  Ordered the light on Sunday.  Eligible for "super saver" shipping.  Shipped today.  Will be here on Weds.  Just in time for a corporate shoot on Thurs.  Way to go, big "A".


Is the age of "professional photographer" over?

More people are taking more photos than ever before and it's a wonderful time to be a photographer.  It may even be a wonderful time to sell pictures occasionally and to make a little side money but I think we're seeing the passing of the "Professional Photographer" (in caps) as a profession in the same way typesetters vanished from the face of the earth within ten years of desktop publishing hitting the marketplace.  Same with traditional labs.  In the old days typesetting required skill and taste and equipment.  But it cost money to do it right.  We paid the money (in the ad agency days) because that was the way it was done and that was the cost of doing business.

But when Pagemaker and QuarkExpress hit the market it became possible (mandatory, from a cost point of view...) for art directors and graphic designers to do their own typesetting.  While early versions of the desktop graphic design programs lacked the ultra fine control, and the massive number of fonts traditional typesetters offered, the programs offered something that accountants couldn't resist:  The Idea of Free,  and they offered something a generation becoming fascinated with computers couldn't resist:  The Idea of Personal Control over the whole process.  While there are tiny exceptions the vast majority of professional typesetters and typesetting services are gone.  Not transformed, just gone.  We don't have a group who "upped their game" and made a viable argument for the value proposition of the very best typesetting in the world we just don't have any typesetters.

While more and more photos are being taken, as a percentage, far fewer are being taken by professional photographers than ever before.  And that includes images being used in ad campaigns and in  the general course of commerce.  Wedding photographers have seen a radical decline just in the last two years in total sales and revenue.  And it's not a question of not seeing the future.  Professional photographers don't know how to make money doing what they have done in the past in the future they do see.  Everyone who needs a photo for one use or another is stepping up with their own camera (or phone) and taking their best shot.  PhotoShop and it's lite cousins are the Pagemakers and Quarkexpresses that are driving the total market adaptation.  Time and budget are relentlessly driving the market for images.

Why did I start thinking about this?  It was the news that Kodak might be filing bankruptcy that started me down this tortured thought trail.  If the company that invented digital photography can't figure out how to survive in the age of digital photography what hope can there be for the professional photographers?  Yes, we're more agile and able to change quickly, but we're doing what all the devolving industries have done when confronted with their decline,  we move into other related fields, each of which is probably also in decline.  A great example is video production.  

When the 5D mk2 hit the market, and Vincent Laforet did his video Reverie, it struck a match of hope in the hearts of photographers looking for a secondary income stream.  How simple.  We would all become video artists.  But in the last two years so much programming has moved to YouTube and the numbers in the professional side of that industry are, if anything, worse than those confronting the majority of working photographers.  Some photographers have starting offering web design but that market is flooded as well.  

I've heard the chorus before.  It goes like this:  "Up your game and the world is your oyster."  But the reality is that, for most, even the perfect game isn't going to compete against free, or almost free. And it's not enough to compete against the concept of "good enough."  With tens of billions of images available at the fingertips of people who used to have to assign work, and pay real money for it, the odds are that perfect isn't going to be in the budget again for a long, long time.

Kodak was, for me, the symbol of photography as I knew it.  And the guys at Kodak weren't and aren't dumb.  They are/were some of the best and brightest.  They just didn't plan on the market shifting at the speed of light.  They didn't anticipate that disruption would occur faster than T-Max 3200.  And we, as professional photographers, are now standing where Kodak stood before the Toons dropped the safe or the grand piano on their heads  (Who Killed Rodger Rabbit reference).  Will we be able to do a better job of creating an alternative universe for ourselves?  It remains to be seen. 

I think the markets will continue as they progressively wind their way away from traditional assignment work.  Photographers will transition as designers have.  In order to stay in the middle class they'll need to diversify into video, digital presentation, writing, web publishing and more stuff that we haven't even invented yet. We'll likely become "content providers" working in concert with designers and agencies. Designers work with type, work with graphic elements, shoot their own source materials when necessary, design for the web and print and outdoor and for mobile apps.  Would they prefer to concentrate on pure design?  Sure.  But they also like to eat, pay the rent and buy stuff.  

Our industry will make a similar transition.  We just haven't figured out the whole roadmap yet.  And the people who don't want to learn to swim (all four strokes)  will be left behind, clinging to a fragment of the battered haul from a ship that's sinking quickly into the deep, cold waters of incessant progress.

Ian Summers summed it all up best with his motto:  "Grow or Die."

The only reality check I can offer is that Professional Photography is a much, much bigger and more diverse industry than Typesetting ever was.  And there are, of course, segments that will keep holding on even as most of the formerly profitable market is destroyed.  To make an analogy to video, while people are shooting their own webcasts with small digital cameras, or the cameras in their laptops, they don't want to give up the quality of professional camera and video work they see on broadcast NFL football games.  That level of work still takes a lot of skill and experience.  But a quick training video or "how to" video for in-house use?  Forget it.  Parts of the industry will go on.  But large swaths of what we always considered "the bread and butter" will not.  Not in the same way.  And without foundational work there's no real chance the majority will make it being photographers, exclusively.

Do I write this because I am angry or cranky?  No, I write this as an honest opinion.  It's as inevitable as the waves on the beach.  How can we battle  it?  We can't.  We can sort through our options and figure out our futures but we have to recognize that things changed quicker than anyone thought and, that old models are breaking down.  My business used to be completely devoted to assignment photography.  Last year a large percentage of our income was from publishing royalties.  Another segment came from several video projects.   Another part of the pie came from web marketing.  And some money even flew into the coffers as a result of teaching at workshops and seminars.  I may be a curmudgeon but I'm embracing change as quickly as I can.  Wanna buy a Visual Science Lab T-shirt?  

I hope Kodak makes it. Not because I believe they must for nostalgic reasons but because it would validate my thoughts that we can, as an industry,  retool and we can re-engage our markets (and new markets) in different ways.  

This essay is aimed solely at the people in the audience who make a living from taking photographs.  If you don't fall in this category you are either luckier or less lucky than we are.  If you get beyond the idea that the people at Kodak are not intelligent and you can understand that they were at the mercy of the data they had at hand you'll likely do a better job with your re-invention.  It starts now.  


Kirk Tuck's Amazing and Obvious Predictions for 2012

I love the world of photography.  It's so diverse and so wide that you can't ever master the whole mixture. You can only stake out your aesthetic territory and dive in.  I make my living making photographs for use in advertising and public relations.  I specialize in taking portraits and, if I had to define my specialization even further I would characterize my best work as being portraits on locations.

I would define my personal work as a mix of black and white portraits taken in the studio and bits and pieces of modern life shot in coffee shops, on the city streets and while at work in my real job as a photographer.  My biggest prediction for me, in 2012, is that I'll shoot lots of photographs with an ever changing array of interesting cameras and lenses.  Second prediction?  That I'll spend more time writing books than ever before.  My one big resolution for the year is to get my long languishing novel out the door.  Of course it's all about photography.....

But my purpose today is to stand on my soap box and make general and specific predictions about what I think will happen to the markets, clients, and photography business this year.  And to also predict what will happen to our tools.  Those little gems.  The cameras and their best friends, the lenses.  This is all for fun so don't take it too seriously.  But this is how the "whole picture" seems to me:

1.  We'll see a general recovery in the U.S. economy.  We always do in election years.  It's a historic metric.  The interesting thing is that in the year following presidential elections when the Democrats win the White House the stock market always climbs.  When the Republicans win the stock market recedes.  I'm staying away from politics here for the time being but regardless of your party affiliation remember to make some hay in 2012 while the sun shines.

2.  Following point one I think the market for commercial photography will improve somewhat for two reasons: a.  A rising tide lifts all boats.  As the economy recovers there will be a release of pent up corporate and retail demand for fresh images and a total marketing refresh.  I think this will translate into more assignment work.  b.  More people will be re-employed or more fully employed at traditional job functions which means they'll have less time and fewer opportunities and inclination to dip their toes into the freelance market.  Fewer players means less downward pressure on the remaining participants.

3.  Both of the above points will have the effect of putting more income into the hands of the huge installed base of people who love photography as an art and a hobby and they'll drive a recovery of the camera, lens and experience (workshop, location experience, seminar) markets.  More demand means more new products.

4.  2012 will be the year the overwhelming number of cameras in every category (including even pro cameras) leave the optical prism finder behind and replace it with fast acting, super high resolution electronic viewfinders.  Traditional photographers will riot and rend their clothing in rage and frustration.  The rest of us will realize that progress is progress.  Unstoppable and relentless.  And, hey, it's really nice to see a fully configured preview, with information overlays, right there in the finder.  This will drop the prices on entry level and mid level cameras since the corollary to the move to EVF's is the logical elimination of the moving mirror.  And the moving mirror with its mass and mechanical complexity is the nexus of most mechanical problems and mis-focusing problems in DSLR's.  Eliminate the moving mirror to gain robustness and minimize the number of parts required to make a camera.

Nikon, with their V1 camera, has shown that technology has eliminated the one issue of mirrorless cameras; their slower autofocus process.  They've put contrast detection (accuracy) and phase detection (speed) in one camera and done it well.  These capabilities will doubtless trickle up and down the product lines.  The combination of AF capabilities will also go a long way toward eliminating the need to have micro-focus adjustments in cameras...

(here's what Trey Ratliff says, http://www.stuckincustoms.com/2012/01/04/dslrs-are-a-dying-breed-3rd-gen-cameras-are-the-future )

Get ready.  We're going EVF.  If you really hate it all that much (and that presumes you've looked at the latest finders, not some superzoom compact from 2004) you might want to stock up on some of your favorite bodies in the hopes of riding out the new wave.  The rest of us?  We'll manage.

5.  This will be the year that convinces us that sensor size doesn't really matter as much as we thought.  With the noise performance of the Nikon V1
 trumping the last generation of m4:3rds cameras, even though its sensor is less than half the size, and with the rave reviews for the even smaller sensor in the Fuji X-10, I think we've come to the point in the road where most people are going to be satisfied, from an image quality point of view, with just about any sensor size above the standard compact camera sized sensor, like the ones in the Canon g12, and the Panasonic LX-5.

6.  As more and more people embrace the cellphone as their primary imaging tool the public perception of what defines quality and professional metrics will keep falling faster than lead balls in a vacuum.  A tandem trend is the need to continually increase the compression of web graphics to make them manageable on mobile devices of all kinds.  This will define the new schism between "professional" results and "amateur" results.  More and more documentary images (and videos) will be taken with iPhones and other smart phones.  The images needed for print advertising, display prints and other uses will come from traditional cameras.  BUT, after a few years of being inundated by small sensor, handheld and heavily processd images, the images derived from full frame captures will seem to us like the very best of the digital medium format captures seem to us now.  This means that smaller sensor cameras will become our "workaday" cameras while FF digital cameras become the new "high end" standard and medium format becomes an even more highly specialized and expensive niche market.

7.  2012 will see the acceleration of software designed to emulate the look of previous cameras, both large sensor digital cameras and the four by five inch and medium format cameras from the film era.  Better and better selective focus filters and selection processing will give us the "bokeh" most people seem to crave, and use as an excuse for not wanting to use smaller format cameras.  By the end of this year it will be possible to shoot a portrait with a small sensor camera at f11 and, with the touch of a button, have the background rendered as soft as a baby's butt, without the telltale edge garbage of current selection processes.  And the effects will be so well feathered that only a handful will be able to see the slight-of-hand of the process.  This will make iPhone users even happier.

8.  The current year will become known as the amazing year of prime lenses!  The m4:3rds market got off to a rough start when the only option for lenses was a handful of tame, mid-focal length zooms with apertures that started at 3.5 and quickly rushed to 5.6.  Couple a smaller sensor, increased depth of field and increased high ISO noise with a crippled optic and it's hard to make the whole package an easy sell.  Then one lens turned around the whole space.  Panasonic launched the brilliant 20mm 1.7 pancake lens for the format and sales started soaring.  The best implementation of this lens is on the Pen EP-3.  The camera provides really good image stabilization while the lens gives back high sharpness at an aperture almost guaranteed to ameliorate the need to go to nose bleed ISO's to capture everyday images.  And, did I mention the high sharpness wide open?

It didn't take the manufacturers long to learn the lesson and now, Alpha-Blogger, Michael Johnston, has named the recently launched 45mm f1.8 Olympus Pen
 lens as his "lens of the year."  It's fast.  It's sharp.  It's cute and cuddly.  And it works on more than one camera system.  If Olympus have fatally shot themselves in their own foot the lens will work just as well on the Panasonic m4:3 camera offerings.  (See points 5 and 6 above.  These cameras may be all you need).  Hurray for open systems.  This time....

The 45mm was followed by an amazing 12mm (24mm equivalent) and, in the Panasonic camp, a Leica branded 25mm f1.4 that's gotten the kinds of lens reviews usually offered only for the most elite and expensive of optics.  In fact, the one review I recently read was extremely boring.  It basically said:  "Sharp and perfect across the frame, wide open and stopped down.  No weaknesses that we could see."

How popular is the use of prime lenses on the mirrorless cameras (including Sony's, Olympus and Panasonic)???? Leica is currently in an extreme backorder situation with nearly all of their "M" optics, and since M9 camera sales haven't followed the same curve it only stands to reason that those lenses are ending up on something.  That something seems to be inexpensive mirrorless cameras.  Great sensors coupled with exhilarating optics in small packages.  Isn't that what the great documentary photographers always wanted?

9.  This will be the year that we, as professionals, and the rest of humanity, as well as our markets, redefine what it means to be a professional camera.  The days of the glandularly engorged D3's and the obese Canon 1D series cameras is likely at an end.  The things that made them sought after are losing their relevance to most consumers and shooters.  Fast frame rates?  Get a Nikon V1.  Low noise at high ISO's?  That might still be the provence of the full frame sensors.  The ability to carry them around?  Gone with the softening of our culture.  The ability to pay for those premium cameras with the diminished earning power of most professionals means less of a logical connection to offering them.  We used to offer premium services to clients in exchange for high rates.  If the rates are cut in half does it still make sense to provide the premium tools?  Especially if their greatest levels of performance are only called for in a tiny fraction of the total number of jobs we undertake?  It's a tough sell.  I got it when architectural photographers charged day rates of $2500 but brought along view cameras and tens of thousands of dollars of lighting equipment.  Not to mention the expertise to concept the shots and use the gear.  But when most people will pay a couple hundred dollars to shoot a house and will be happy with anything that's adequately lit and reasonably sharp is there any logic in making enormous and non-recoupable investments in premium gear?

No.  The market is shifting and the tools will shift along with the ability to generate profit and the resetting of taste and discrimination.  If I can do a great job shooting a portrait with a m4:3rds camera and I can make the background go all gooey with a software program, and then quickly retouch said portrait with Portrait Professional, or similar software product, why should I spend $20,000 on a medium format camera?  There's a price ceiling in every market for commercial headshots.  My having a big investment in a camera won't change that reality.

10.  This will be the year that we re-invent the portrait.  We've spent the last ten years trying every type of lighting and light design and every type of location you can possibly think of.  Now we're going to re-invent it to add value in a different way and make people demand the new product.  I don't know how we're going to do it but I can feel it in my bones that the old looks and old methods are going to be chased out the door by the new.  It might be a mix of video and still work.  It might be something 3D.  I don't know and I may not  even be able to make the jump but someone will and it will breath life back into the market for consumer portraits.  Remember, we thought we'd done it all when Aaron Jones invented the Hosemaster and made lightpainting a giga-trend for a while.  Now Trey Ratcliff is riding the trend of HDR.  But there's a next and it's coming to the portrait space.

Now for the easy stuff:  Product releases.

Nikon will release some really boring consumer DSLR cameras that will tick all the boxes and have great specs.  They will also have hit with the replacement model for the D700.  But the real news will be the fleshing out of their Series One product.  Look for the release of three killer, prime optics.  I'm guessing a 6.5 or 7mm wide angle with an f2 aperture.  Of course there will be a 35mm or 50mm equivalent, normal optic with an f1.4 aperture and also a 38mm (105mm equivalent) telephoto portrait lens.  I'm guessing this one will also be under f2 and razor sharp wide open.  Also look for adapters to fit into the proprietary shoe to give you ooodles of flash control with Nikon's current SB flashes.  Finally, they'll have a new pro body that gives you the much desired (by some but not necessarily me) PSAM dial and a few other "critical" external buttons.

Most users who started their careers with big digital cameras will turn their noses up at the Series One but their careers will be decimated by a whole new generations coming up behind them who see the value proposition and the lower barriers to entry and use systems like the Series One and the m4:3rds to compete at a lower cost.  They'll make whatever shortcomings we perceive with these cameras into stylistic selling points.

As Nikon's bigger cameras and lenses become less relevant to a growing part of the market look for prices on big glass and big cameras to continue to rise.

Canon will see the writing on the wall and come at the mirrorless market in two directions.  First they'll pump up their G family and add cameras in the $600+ market that are akin to the Fuji X10.  Bigger and quieter sensors, more in cameras processing and an ability to go toe to toe, in good light, with everyone's entry level APS-C cameras and m4:3rds cameras.  The pro market will tentatively buy the new pro camera (the 1DX) but huge numbers will wait to see what replaces the 5Dmk2.  If that replacement implements the AF technology of the 7D and keeps the full frame with a modest increase in pixel count and an improved control implementation for video the remaining pros will keep it on backorder for years. And it will come to define the Canon Pro market for the 95% who aren't shooting Luge at the Olympics and NFL football games from the sidelines.

But, here's my huge prediction for Canon.  They will introduce a mirrorless APS-C camera, styled like a rangefinder, that has it's own line of lenses and is compatible with EF-S lenses as well.  It will be sexy, riff off the Leica and Contax rangefinders of the 1950's and some of the optics will be luxe.  It won't necessarily be cheap but it will exude hipster coolness and become the thing that the Fuji X100 should have been.  Gorgeous, but with interchangeable lenses.  The lines at the stores will look like an iPad introduction.

Olympus.  They were so close.  And then the scandal.  Will they recover?  My money says that the Japanese government won't let them go down the toilet. They have a great brand name, a raft of new products and a profitable medical imaging business to help support them.  And they have finally hit their stride with the Pen products.  Sadly, the conventional 4:3rds cameras are soon to be toast.  If you love the e5 I'll say you should stock up.  Squirrel away the lenses you want and warehouse some bodies because my spider sense tells me that the financial dramatics are essential cover for the abandonment of a whole product line.  Rationale?  We couldn't survive without a laser like focus on our most profitable line....something had to go.  Either that or...."

With the older line off their shoulders (and ledger) Olympus will continue their agressive march into the mirrorless space.  Next up?  A pro-version of their EP3 with a new chip from Panasonic.  I'd love to see the well reviewed G3 sensor in the body.  And I hope it hits by the Summer.  I've got plans.  Look also for them to flesh out the lens offerings with an 8mm wide angle and a fast 60 or 65mm portrait type lens.  And count on the next implementation of their top camera to have a built in EVF.

Panasonic.  Hot on the heels of their success with the new sensor look for them to keep fleshing out their Leica badged lens line, to the delight of both Panasonic and Olympus fans.  A 90mm Apo Summicron equivalent (45mm f2) with fast focusing would go a long way to professionalizing the line. But a few fast and longer optics wouldn't hurt either.  Both Panasonic and Olympus could snag more and more shooters into using the m4;3rds as their primary cameras (instead of their fun "hobby" cameras) if they round out the mix a bit.  I'd love to see a 70-200 f2.8 zoom equivalent and also a 180mm f2 equivalent (90mm f2).  The new sensors have breathed new life into the GH2 and the G3 and, as the sensor rolls into the rest of their product line they become a very competitive alterative to everyone else's APS-C lines.

Sony.  I'm amazed at Sony.  So much good technology and so much really bad marketing.  They need to get a rational lens line figured out and put into place and they need to figure out who the Nex cameras are being made for.  Great sensors with oversized lenses and undersized camera bodies.  Huh?

The top end of their offerings needs a big time refresh.  The 900 and the 850 need to be mirrorless and video able.  The Zeiss line needs to be fully implemented and available.  And they have to put them into the hands of world class shooters, not the second string.  And then they need to market the hell out of the art potential of their product line.

Lighting.  The shift will happen this year.  The days of the tungsten light, in photography, video and cinema are nearly gone.  In three years the "hot light" fixtures will be museum pieces.  So will the consumer market for big, powerful studio flashes.  Continuous light will move inexorable and unstoppably to LEDs.  As the CRI (color rendering index) of the bulbs improves with each generation, and the introduction of tri-color fixtures accelerates, LEDs will become the absolute standard for lights that have to be on all the time.  And, for most people doing portraits and products, the LEDs will be even more popular.  Why?  Because what you see is what you get.  A set of LEDs and the LCD on the back of your camera and you've got an interactive lighting class at your fingertips.  Self propelled.

My prediction is that you'll see more and more LED panels in more sizes and outputs than we ever imagined.  Most of them will be able to run off highly efficient lithium batteries and a/c, your choice.  That means well be able to use them in cars, in bar, to light stars and just about anything else that doesn't require enough raw power to overpower direct sun.  I used three panels recently to light books for a catalog and I was able to do my shoot in a fraction of the time because of the WYSIWYG nature of the lighting.

Florescent fixtures will start to drop off at the same rate film dropped off after 2001.  The reason?  Too fragile, too unwieldy and too hard to use with a myriad of modifiers.  Also, who wants to try and travel with a bunch of fragile glass tubes filled with traces of mercury?  Not me.

In the flash space we'll see more and more "cross-overs" like the Elinchrom Rangers and the Quantum Q lights.  Big enough to do a reasonable job for portraits and general studio work but small and efficient enough to go out on location get good results.  But the real market for professional and wannabe professionals will be more products like the Alien Bees and their companion Vagabond Lithium battery pack.  Small, light but capable monolights coupled with lightweight and efficient but powerful lithium batteries that mean you can do studio work anywhere.  No wall plugs necessary.

While I like LEDs we still need flash for it's very high CRI ratings in color critical shoots and for action  stopping.  But mostly we need bigger flashes because they provide enough pop to do really big outdoor effects, even in sunlight.  I have Elincrom Ranger RX lights and Profoto lights but going forward the much lower cost of the Alien Bees+Lithium batteries is alluring.  We'll see a continual move away from high cost and lux feature sets to low cost and utilitarian.  Bye-bye big boys.

On camera flash?  Yawn.  I think we've hit a good spot with lots of flexibility and control.  Anything beyond this for right now is window dressing.

Finally, the actual art and business of photography.

We've spent, as a culture, so much time looking at screens and creating for isolated viewing protocols that there's bound to be a backlash.  I think people want to make prints because they are at least an echo of the hand made tradition of the darkroom and the fine print.  We like things we can hold in our hands and we like things that provide a uniform and objective experience.  I think we're going to see more gallery shows and more impromptu sharing of prints for the next few years as a counterpoint to the endless squinting at tiny cellphone screens.  And I think prints will become more manageable as a result.

When a show is a "once in a lifetime" retrospective there's an almost unstoppable momentum to print as large as a file will allow.  But when you show a lot things have to become more manageable.  Frame sizes will have to be affordable.  Viewing distances taken into consideration.  And albums constructed on a human scale.  We'll have a renaissance of print viewing but we'll also share "theater style."

There's something social that gets lost when you share your work out to the world on a screen.  Any artist will tell you that much of the fun is seeing the reaction of guests at a gallery opening, chatting and sharing with peers and fans.  Drinking too much wine and eating to much finger food.  A show creates a vibe and the way to understand the vibe is.....to be there.  Sending a link just isn't the same thing as walking through a crowded room full of men with beards and funky glasses and women in tight black outfits with seductive snarls on their lips.

But the middle way would be to do a show like theater.  Here's my idea for a group show and I'm sure it's already happening all over the place.  Select a gallery or a space.  Create a theater environment with lots of black drape and a giant, state of the art television monitor.  Can we say 60 inches or larger?  Something very high res.  Get 10 slides from each participant and do a slide show.  Invite everyone you know and everyone everyone else knows and the room rotates through the show through the night.  Just outside the "theater" is an area for discussion and socializing.  On the wall is an enlarged index of images from each participant.  Art buyers and gallery goers choose the image they want and choose a size available from the artist.  They order, leave a deposit, and the artist delivers the print.  Either directly or to the gallery.  Even if no sales the show works.  It works because it keeps everyone in the social mix.

I expect that the enthusiasm over having all images manipulated in software and HDR will abate just as soft focus and psychedelic effects did in the 1960's.  Or monumental black and white landscapes did in the 1980's.  Or studio fashion in the 1990's.  Or hand colored prints in the 1950's.  Or bromoil prints in the 1920's.  The first decade of the new century will probably be forever remembered as "that time when everyone destroyed their images with post processing."  Just as real estate markets reflect sinusoidal waves of over building and underbuilding I think we're about to undergo our "market correction" and go back to a style where content drives the perceived value of images.  It will be interesting to see if the same people who are so good at applying glitter to their images really have anything cogent to add to an adult conversation.

I also predict that people's appetites for blogs will inevitably decline.  At some point we all come to the realization that none of us know for sure about anything important.  It's all just conjecture and personal prejudice.  We'll probably become so enamored of actually creating work with messages and context and point of view that we run out of time and energy to hear someone else's opinion about the inevitable downfall of civilization as we know it and we'll double click on the little application icon, shut down our computer or whatever you use to cruise the web and we'll head out the door for a good, long walk with out cameras in our hands and a determined smile on our faces.  And we'll face the new year knowing that we don't know.  And that's okay.  As long as there's still coffee.

Thanks.  Happy New Year.

Here is an old blog post of my end of year predictions going into 2010.  Check out #5.....


Soup. On location.

I was working on a story about a non-traditional Thanksgiving feast for a spa magazine out of California and we needed to do some "studio" shots of the various presentations coming out of the home kitchen of the writer.  I kept scouting around for a good location in the 1980's style kitchen but not finding anything that would work well with the various dishes and the stylish bowls and plates we were using.  I took a moment to walk outside and re-center my thoughts.  This would be the moment the photographer goes outside for a cigarette except that I don't smoke.

While I was standing in the writer's back yard looking at a small, kidney shaped pool, my eyes rummaged across the remains of a home improvement project.  Probably tile used in the rehab of a bathroom on the second floor.  I grabbed four pieces of the tile and headed back into the house.  I built a small stage with the tile on the floor of the living room because it was the space with the least traffic, the closest proximity to the kitchen and the most space in which to set up lights.

The lighting was very straightforward.  One electronic flash in a medium sized softbox from the top left of the frame and one big piece of white foamcore as the fill from the opposite side.  Incident light meter reading with the ball of the meter aimed directly at the camera.  Power on the pack juggled until I got f16.  I used a Bronica SQ-Ai, medium format camera with a 150mm lens and Fuji ISO 100 transparency film.  We took Polaroid tests to make sure we had the exposure right and then proceeded to shoot ten or so dishes.  The soup was my favorite.

The chef brought the soup in a pan and carefully poured it into the bowl, which was already positioned on the set.  He then garnished the dish and added the olive oil drops.  When he moved out of my light I snapped a three shot bracket and we moved on to the next dish.

The story ran eight pages and looked good.  Sometimes work is straight forward, once you figure out what to shoot on and where to shoot.


An old post becomes my mantra for the new year.


"The cave you fear to enter holds the treasure you seek." Joseph Campbell

"The cave you fear to enter holds the treasure you seek."  Joseph Campbell

Nearly every photographer I've ever met is afraid to approach strangers in public and ask permission to photograph them.  The few that were not afraid were most probably sociopathic.  So, how is it that some people are able to overcome this fear and take photographs of strangers in public?

They begin by confronting their fears.  You work up your courage.  You approach the situation with butterflies in your stomach and you ask.  And, surprisingly, most times the person smiles and says yes.  They are flattered.  They are human. They are part of the continuum of humanity.

The more often you practice the better you are able to push down the fear until you nearly conquer it.  Then you move on to the next challenge.  The next fear.  Joseph Campbell says it better an I in one quick sentence.  

Consider this next time fear of a deadline, a meeting, a new way of doing something presents itself.  By pushing against the fear you may unlock doors of which you only dreamed.  Steven Pressfield, in his incredible book, The War of Art, basically says that resistance is strongest the closer you get to accomplishing your goals.

Happy Holidays!   Kirk

added Monday morning:  good article on multi-tasking, etc. by Mike Johnston:

It's a new year. I'm playing with a new camera. No. Really.

Why?  What was I thinking?

If you've read my blog for a while you know a few things about my camera habits.  I'm generally spending my days in a state of confliction.  I think the future of cameras and imaging lies in the smaller sensor cameras like the micro four thirds and cameras like the Nikon V1, and even smaller chipped cameras like the Fuji X10.  I also think the proliferation of electronic viewfinders (EVFs) is welcome and inevitable.  The conflict comes from my endless trail of legacy cameras and thought processes that, like little anchors, keep me from fully embracing what I see as the future of photography.  I am also rooted in its "glorious" past.

I love the look of a portrait done with a medium format camera and a medium/short telephoto but I know from experience that the quality is just an echo of the look I used to get when I would shoot portraits with a Zeiss 240mm f5.6 Planar on my 4x5 inch Linhof camera.  Those images were sublime.  And, recently I've come to like the look of the Zeiss 85mm 1.4 ZE lens on my Canon 5Dmk2 or the older but no less elegant 1DS mk2.  But those images are an even fainter echo of my original film standard.  But time and tastes move forward.  And I'm pretty convinced that I can learn to love the look of the Olympus 60mm f1.5 on a micro four thirds camera.  It's an adjustment but I've been adjusting downward since the start of my career.  And so has most of the market.

So, some days I shoot things with the old Hasselblad and some days I shoot with the Canons and sometimes I'm convinced that the smallest of my cameras is sufficient.  If you are wired like me you have my heartfelt condolences...

For the last three years I've been exploring just how much can be done with the smaller gauge cameras and I've come to find that you can actually do a lot.  The images look good and the introduction of faster lenses is giving us back some of the DOF control for which we longed.  The small cameras have come a long way in a very short time and show no signs of slowing down.  My favorite "flavor" has been the Olympus Pen line.  I collected their ancient film ancestors, the Pen FT series, from the 1980's on and I use the older, manual focus lenses interchangeably with the new optics being brought to market by Olympus and Panasonic.  And, with the release of the EP3, I was a very satisfied customer.  If you haven't handled an EP3 you might want to play with one.  It's a cool camera and it's small, light and svelte (but no, you can't fit it in the pocket of your jeans) and the files are solid and well finished.

But you've probably been reading about Olympus in various financial publications or in news aggregation sites on the web.  They've been having some self-inflicted legal/ethical problems lately in their executive suite and the fall out might affect the stability or even the life of the company in general and the camera division, specifically.  If you have an investment,  emotionally, financially or artistically in the use of Olympus Pen cameras this thought has surely crossed your mind:  "If Olympus craters what happens to my investment in all the cool glass?  What's my future roadmap for new bodies?  How will I be able to keep using the format I've come to enjoy?

I rejoiced, in 2009, when Olympus launched the EP2 because in many was it was the camera I'd been looking for through the years. In a way it was my dream camera.  I could program it to shoot in the square format I'd come to love in my medium format days.  I could use an eye level viewfinder with an EVF that showed my chosen aspect ratio.  The lens flange to sensor distance made the use of my older, Pen FT lenses easy and even allowed me to use Leica and Nikon lenses on the camera.  It's small, light and beautifully designed.  What was there not to like?  The EP3 was even better.  The whipped creme on the whole confection was the well implemented VF-2 EVF.  It was very satisfying to see the effects of filters, exposure settings and fine tuning in the eye level monitor as I shot.  I would have used the cameras for everything if not for a few oversites in design vis-a-vis professional, commercial use.  For example:  Would it really have been so hard to include a PC sync port separate from the hot shoe?  If that had been done I could shoot with my studio flashes and still be able to compose at eye level.  Would it have broken the design bank to add an external microphone socket instead of bringing the signal through the hot shoe plug in?  If they had done that I could use high quality external microphones in my video projects and still compose and follow action (especially in bright sun) with my EVF.

But, over time, I made peace with these shortcomings and learned to enjoy shooting with the cameras.  I bought back up bodies.  I bought batteries and lenses, started settling into the system (in tandem with my bigger Canons) and then.....the financial revelations and scandal rocked the company.

Once the news spread across the web I started thinking about alternatives.  I wasn't worried so much about the lenses because of the ability to use so many legacy lenses.  When it came to the dedicated lenses I didn't blink either because they so rarely fail.  My real concern was/is bodies.  I didn't want to find myself with a drawer full of wonderful, small lenses and nothing fun on which to put them.

Of course, the logical destination for all my market research was Panasonic, a partner in the m4:3rds consortium.  Panasonic is a giant in the electronics industry and dwarfs Olympus in resources and financial strength.  

I started looking around and was immediately drawn to the GH2.  In many ways it is the complementary adjunct to the slender and stripped down EP-2 and 3.  I see it as a chunky but reliable tool that brings more flexibility and depth to the overall system.  
My first use of the camera was this morning at Barton Springs Pool.  A giant, spring fed pool in the center of Austin.  It's a tradition to start the year off with a jump into the 60-something degree water.  Today the air temp was 45(f), some years it's in the 20's.  People still come and jump.

I walked around to the far side of the pool so I could photograph my friends doing their big, simultaneous, group jump.  This is a stone stairway on the NE corner of the pool.

Air mattresses and floats are only allowed at the east end of the pool.  The lifeguard stands have been there without change since I moved to Austin 37 years ago...

Random Jumpers.  I was getting used to the timing of the GH2 and the reach of the lens.

My friend, Ed, leading the charge off the diving board.  Afterwards we go to his house for homemade waffles and great coffee.  Not much shutter lag...

Where the EP3 is a svelte and designed for eye appeal the GH2 is designed like a pudgy miniature DSLR.  But in several compelling ways it trumps the Olympus camera for sheer usability in a commercial arena.  The camera has a built in EVF that's at least as good as Olympus's VF2.  That leaves the hot shoe open for flash triggers, flashes and microphone feet.  A separate connector for an external stereo microphone means not having to make a choice between external microphone and EVF, as you must make when using a Pen camera.
I bought the camera with the 14-140mm lens.  It's the equivalent angle of view to a 28-280 on a full frame, 35mm camera.  This is the 14mm end.  It's pretty darn sharp, wide open.

This is the 140mm end of the lens from the same position as the image above.  It passes my sharpness tests, wide open.  Nice lens.  The hood comes with it.  
Suck on that, Canon. (not cranky, just making a point.)

The other big advantage of this Panasonic and its less expensive and complex sibling, the G3, is a new sensor that provides more resolution with less high ISO noise.  The GH2 uses 120 hz sampling in AF and processing and matches the EP3 for focusing speed and accuracy.  But, the camera is much bigger and bulkier.

After an hour or so of skimming reviews I went off to the camera store to play with one.  I liked the way it worked and I liked the way it focused so I bought one on the last day of 2011.  I bought it in black and I sprung for the 14-140mm lens because the review on SLRgear.com was compelling.

I've had the camera for about 26 hours and I think I will end up liking it very much.  It has a touch screen on the swivel LCD that's well implemented and easy to use.  It focuses about as fast as my Canon 5Dmk2 and all the files I've shot are good.  I like the lens and think it's fun to have a 10x zoom range.  In operation the camera has been rock solid. 
zoomed way out.  Very snappy focus in good light.

I'm not recommending that you go right out and buy yourself one.  Especially since I've heard rumors that a GH3 might be in offing. And I am optimistic that Olympus and its investors will work out their issues in a way that leaves the camera arm of the company healthy and innovative.  In the meantime it's nice to know that there are alternatives in the wings.  Many of you will profess to dislike the GH2 because it's bigger than the sexy Pens.  I agree.  But the Panasonic G3 is much smaller, less expensive, and uses an even better sensor so that could also be an option.   But I'll be doing some more reports as I have more experience with the machine.  I'm looking forward to doing video production with it as well.
Based on what I've seen so far you could do 90-95% of the images most commercial photographers need to do for money with this camera and lens.  Nice.
I'm a sucker for industrial stuff.  I've spent way too much time shooting annual reports.

 The shadow on the building didn't trick the light meter for even a second.  I never get tired of shooting the Frost Bank Tower.  It's a nice looking building.

While it's a bit harder to throw stuff out of focus with shorter focal length lenses it sure is nice to be able to keep lots of stuff in focus when you need to...

I would like to thank the W Hotel in Austin for giving me the opportunity to use 
one of their bathrooms, both for the call of nature and to test the image stabilization of the 
14-140mm lens.  This was shot at 0.8th of a second (as I understand it that's almost a full second) wide open.  And to make the test even more punishing it was right after leaving Caffe Medici and their wonderful, full strength, cappuccino.  I'll say that the IS works pretty darn well.

If you click on the photos they get bigGER.

As far as bulk and weight goes, it feels to me like the GH2 is right in the middle between one of my full sized Canons (think 5D2) and the Olympus EP3.

Always fun to start the year out with a new toy.  So far 2012 is exceeding my expectations.  I hope it's a great year for you and everyone else.

a program note:  The "no comments" initiative we embarked on in mid-December has yielded remarkable results.  The emotional comfort metrics are out of the ballpark.  We'll keep it in place just a bit longer until we get a good idea of how this year is panning out.  If you really need to comment you are always welcome on our Flickr forum:  http://www.flickr.com/groups/visualsciencelab