This camera, with a "normal" 50mm lens and a flash weighed in at over 6 pounds...
It was once "state-of-the-art."
I remember my first cellphone. It was made by Motorola and it was one big brick. I can't even remember if it had a screen on it but I can remember that my monthly cellphone bill was breathtaking and that the phone was big and ungainly. It didn't send texts or allow me to read e-mail or ask Google how to chew gum but it was, at the time, "state-of-the-art." The "non" smart phone died quickly. Very quickly. And now --- we grapple with the slow fade into obscurity of the DSLR camera. Photokina was the death knell; a note heard around the world.
Which company introduced a new, flagship, state of the art DSLR at Photokina this year? Was it Canon? Nope. Nikon? Not this time. Oh. Maybe Pentax blew everyone's doors off with the newest super mirror cam? Naw. Not even close. The one company that showed a traditional DSLR design is the one company whose medium format camera is NOT going to fly off the shelves. The sole DSLR style camera that I could find coming out of this year's Photokina (Giant German Photo Show) was the newest Leica S3 with a new 64 megapixel sensor. Not sure the photo-rabble will line up to grab the S3 as the purchase price will rival a new car. And that's before you start adding lenses....
The overwhelming focus of this year's show is mirrorless. It includes the latest Fuji APS-C, XT3 with its 26 megapixel sensor. The Nikon twins were there as was the fat and happy bourgeois mirrorless camera from Canon. And promises for many new lenses. And many pathways for using older lenses.
But what we don't see are promises of updates to traditional mirrored models. I think it's fair to say that all the R&D emphasis for the next five years is going to be in the mirrorless space and, if you see your mirrored cameras as "investments" I'd be shorting the market right now. I don't think they've got anywhere to go but down from here.
The amusing thing will be the disconnection in time frame between what consumers expect and what manufacturers will deliver. I said above that all the R&D will fall to the mirrorless space in the next five years but I didn't mean that DSLRs would happily motor along for the next five years and then have sales fall off a cliff. No, they are falling off a cliff now and have done so since at least 2013. That's five years ago.
I think the fall of in popularity and sales will be a much brisker rate of decline as mirrorless cameras lean on technology to correct every single user objection to their current state. We've already seen EVFs get remarkably good. The frame rates in the new mirrorless cameras (using electronic shutters) have eclipsed the mechanical shutters in DSLRs by a factor of two. And it seems that more and more features will actively depend on raw processing power instead of mechanical components. We can comfort each other and tell each other that DSLRs have mystical powers but it's not true.
Photographers of a certain age will continue to have soft spots in their nostalgic constructs of photography for older technology but they'll be displaced in the blink of an eye as the main market for all cameras in the near future. In a decade the only DSLRs still in use will be the ones used as props, signifying a point in time, in movies and TV shows. That doesn't mean we need to immediately give up and toss the older cameras out in the trash but you need to be prepared for a tidal shift that will make DSLRs "legacy" products, churned out in ever smaller numbers just to service the large number of lenses already in the hands of ever aging consumers.
I wouldn't be so defiantly definite if I'd seen Nikon or Canon roll out a new full frame DSLR at the same time as their mirrorless offerings but clearly, that's not going to happen.
So, don't I feel stupid for stocking up on Nikon stuff when I could have waited and gotten a mirrorless, full frame Panasonic instead. No, not so much. I'm playing the nostalgia game with myself while hedging my bets with the GH5 series cameras and a nice selection of lenses. I use the Nikon D800s and D700s fully aware that I'm playing with what is already starting to be considered "retro" equipment. But I still know how to use them and how to make nice portraits and art projects with them. I'm not in a rush but I'm also happy I've just been flicking small change at them instead of rushing whole hog and buying the latest lenses and a couple D850 bodies ( remind me to cancel my order for the D850....).
The camera that fell directly into my sites today was the 24 megapixel mirrorless camera from Panasonic. It's called an S1. It's a full frame camera that uses the existing Leica SL mount and promises to deliver the perfect balance of features and performance, dancing around the shortcomings of cameras from the majors.
I'm sure the BSI sensor will be wonderful. But that's not a hard assumption as all the 24 megapixel full frame sensors are good and have been for at least four years. But it's the little things that will make the Panasonic S1 a camera I'll covet. It's specs call for impressive video performance that's still a step ahead of everyone else's. They've spanked Canon (hard) by having image stabilization in the body and a dual I.S. system that also leverages I.S. in lenses to make a hard-to-compete-with performance metric that other products, even those just announced, will not come close to matching. The only close competitor to overall I.S. performance will be their own m4:3 cameras and the latest cameras from Olympus. Win, win, win.
Then Panasonic turned around and just embarrassed the crap out of Nikon by delivering (or promising to deliver) two card slots. One slot uses the robust and super fast QXD cards while the other slot uses UHS2 SD cards (which include V90 cards that are already capable of 400 mbs recording IN CAMERA!!!). All the nervous Nancies can use the second slot for back ups while I use one slot for stills and one slot for video. (Finally decided on a justifiable reason for the dual card existence --- but I would have also accepted one card for Raws and one card for Jpegs).
If you are a perfectionist the agreement between Leica and Panasonic means you can spend as much money as you want seeking that perfection in the Leica lens line. If you just want to make great photographs it seems that the Panasonic lens line will be affordable (a relative measure). And then Sigma is signed on to develop for the lens mount as well which adds another high quality option for great lenses.
In my estimation, if Panasonic really does deliver on all the stuff they've introduced at Photokina then they will be a powerful contender in the new mirrorless zone. They are strutting into the coliseum with deep pockets of cash, some great technology, a sterling reputation for delivering great video performance and an equally great reputation for reliability. It's actually early times for full frame mirrorless and there's a distinct possibility that the video+still hybridism might really be the next innovative and desired camera space. If so, Panasonic and Sony have a head start and there's no reason to believe that Panasonic can't be number three in this fairly new space.
I'm holding on to the old Nikon stuff for the moment. I can't just sell it off and replace it with suggested delivery dates from Panasonic. But I don't have that much invested in the system and I'll be happy just to dig into my pocket and put some seed money into my new Panasonic FF system while keeping the GH5s around as a smaller, lighter choice.
I can't imagine we'll see much more from Nikon in the traditional full frame space; with one exception. They will deliver a full frame super sport camera (a D6) in time for the 2020 Olympics. But it be astronomically priced and will represent the final bow, bringing down the curtain on 60 years of DSLR development from them.
It will be interesting to see it all fall out. Canon will hang in at the top of the mix in the short term by sheer power of overwhelming market share; at least for a while. Right now it's Sony's game to lose. They need to up their body design game to confront more mature and more usable designs from their competitors. Panasonic may become the new workhorse brand for professionals and may even ditch most of their amateur/consumer camera products to concentrate solely on making professional tools. It could be an interesting market niche and, with a growing world market (with growing income), the potential is there for a bigger pie. I think they've got their eyes on that.
Of course, I could be totally wrong. But I've called a number of trends pretty well since my 2009 embrace of EVFs, mirrorless, and my prediction of the market decline in an article I wrote in Fall of 2013. I know this, the pros coming into the field now and next year will be shooting with decidedly different blends of cameras than we are using right now.
18 comments:
The S1 is a made for Kirk camera - the super version of the GH5 line. It'll have similar haptics/ergo to the GH5, and should make for a fairly seamless transition from M43 to FF. Everything you love about m43 but with FF IQ.
As for throwback gear, you're not the only one. I'm also getting a used D610 and a couple lenses (50 1.8G and maybe the kit zoom), even though I'm usually getting new tech. The reason? Used d610 prices are down. It's an easy way to pick up a FF camera with high-level IQ. I'll use it as a second camera to my m43 system. I'll use it when I feel nostalgic for an optical viewfinder and having to focus-recompose.
That thud we just heard was DSLR sales hitting the floor.
Peter Wright
I know we're talking FF here, but any thoughts on that novel Panasonic 10-25mm/f1.7 lens for M4/3?
I know it will be too big and expensive for my hobbyist blood, but it sounds like a wonderful piece of kit for working professionals, especially when it comes to event photography or videography. Wide enough that you needn't even consider a dedicated ultrawide, and bright enough that you needn't bring auxiliary fast primes along for many circumstances (unless it's something like a 45/1.8 or 75/1.8).
All the hubub about these cameras... All I see is a ugly APSC stepchildren being forgotten. It certainly gives Fuji and Olympus some room to capture market as the focus is on FF.
Like turbofrog I was intrigued by the 10-25. Seems like a nice brainer video lens.
Personally I am mucking around with a $150 kippon focal reducer (om to m43rds) with an om 50 1.4 a vivitar om 28mm f2.8 and an interesting OM 28-48 f4. The nice thing about the adapter is how it makes 3 lenses into 6.
Funny that I was struggling this morning with which cameras to take to a corporate function this afternoon, two Nikon D800s or two Panasonic GH5s. I chose the GH5s and the first thing someone requested was a quick video.... Choice made. Client momentarily happy and photographer momentarily believing he made the right choice. More later.
I agree completely on the demise of the DSLR. Many of the people I know, who only a year or two ago were shooting Canon and Nikon DSLRs while looking askance at my Sony a77 with EVF, are now using Sony mirrorless cameras. As for me, I have Minolta auto focus lenses more than thirty years old that still work fine with my a77, so my next body will likely be a used a77 II after the prices drop. When that dies I'll likely move to mirrorless with an adapter for my existing lenses, which will likely still be going strong.
Bientôt des photos des chatons sur le site.
Do not underestimate Fuji either.
Their new XT3 is apparently the equal of the GH5 for video according to many. Who would have guessed that?
And they are investing heavily in their "MF-lite" line with a sexy new RF style portable MF camera. It can't do video but for a stills guy that Fuji is nirvana for portraits and landscapes. Great range of lenses already too and more coming.
If using "proper cameras' is going to become more of a niche, Fuji seem to be going toward selling smaller number of higher end gear. And they have very deep pockets too.
Agree about the future. Now can we please stop using the cringeworthy word "mirrorless"?
Calling a non-reflex camera a "mirrorless" today is like calling a car a "horseless." Worse really, because there have been so many types of non-reflex cameras (including smartphones) since the beginning of cameras that there is no need to distinguish one particular type from the reflex type specifically.
Any category name without an "R" in it means it isn't reflex. No one will assume that these cameras have mirrors if you don't go out of your way to point out that they don't. Time to move on....
Thanks for the great blog post.
Que serait The Walking Dead sans ennemis ?
I can see what Nikon was doing with their 2 new full-frame mirrorless cameras.
Let current Nikon owners and switchers know they are moving ahead but also place cameras into the market which lack high end DSLR features and less than cutting edge features like versions from Sony.
Seems like they don't want to cannibalize DSLR sales just yet - but hope we are still around when they produce professional model versions a year or two down the road.
Sony, and now Panasonic, are placing better full-frame mirrorless cameras into customer hands, and Fuji does them all one better with their larger format cameras and innovative designs.
It's a great time to be a camera consumer - I'll try to wait Nikon out but that new Panasonic camera is intriguing.
I know I am the odd one out, but what really interested me is the Sigma announcement. Having a Foveon option in the works, truly allows for sensor choice with same excellent lenses.
mmmmmm, Leica, mmmmmm, DSLR..... only kidding
An EVF can't recreate the nice and calm view through an optical view finder which many of us prefer, so DSLRs will continue to exists.
Also there is really no reason to "upgrade" to a mirrorless camera, as none of them have better image quality than what you already get from a DSLRs.
So just be satisfied with what you already have or get some used equipment that people sell after 1-2 years, because they are disappointed that they don't get better images and think that a new Z7, A7 or whatever will help them become better photographers.
For beginners or intermediate photographers just get a Nikon D3400 with a couple of good lenses, as that camera will provide 95% of the image quality of any of the current top cameras.
Fitting that it will be the D6, to put next to the F6, which for all we know they will keep making as well!
What I will miss is the entry level APS-C/m43 model. Not that much, I only ever bought one of those, a K100. But they have always been nice cameras capable of making fantastic photographs. I guess there will always be the used market. The original A7 is down to $600 used on Amazon, and that price will only go down from there.
Maintain the outstanding work !! Lovin' it!
I like the m43 cameras because I can switch between stills and video by one button; only my M240 and iPhone can do this too. I can't do one button video recording with any of my Nikons (three+ different actions to switch) or Fujis (2-3 actions). It seems Nikon continues this silliness with their Z bodies too.
I was at an airshow a couple of weeks ago, and my Nikons were useless to shoot video (screen unusable in bright light, slow cumbersome operation, etc.) I want my cameras to disappear, and the more buttons and motions it takes to do something, the less I am inclined to use it. The new Panasonic seems to have thought out the hybrid thing.
Where are all these DSLRs and mirrorless cameras that people are buying? When I'm out with my camera I rarely see another photographer with a camera. I see a lot of people using their phones. I'll see the odd mirrorless camera, usually a Fuji or a Sony. Even rarer is the guy carrying a DSLR-I'm not that guy. I go to farmer's markets, different cultural events and shows etc and it's just people taking shots with their phones. Are people buying these cameras and then letting them sit at home, unused? I think the smartphone, or whatever it evolves into, is the future. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony and others out of the camera business in a decade or so.
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