I'm not going to get into the politics of economics and why the new president is enacting tariffs against our most valued trading partners but I will say that this rush to tariffs is going to have unexpected consequences everywhere, for everyone. Today I'm looking at it from the perspective of a consumer who likes to buy products from manufacturers in Japan, Germany and various other countries. Straight from the horse's mouth we know that tariffs are going to be enacted against the E.U. as well as our Asian trading partners, and it's just a matter of time before retail customers here see prices jumping up by 25% and more. Without commensurate increases in average incomes.
You thought Leicas were expensive before? Wait till tariffs add a couple thousand more dollars to the final bill you might pay! And then extrapolate that across lenses, batteries, filters, tripods, and, well, the whole infrastructure of your profession or hobby.
I bought another (used) SL2 last as a hedge against my own desire to buy something new like an SL3-S. I'm not ready to buy an SL3-S right now. Don't need one yet. Might never need one. But I do like to have cameras that travel in pairs and I figured that people would be rushing to upgrade from their SL2 cameras, trading in older models for the latest. Two SL2 cameras satisfies my buying need in the moment while saving me about $3,500. If I waited too long and missed the pre-tariff window I felt sure that used prices on used Leicas would rise once new cameras got hit hard with inevitable price increases. The older, but still great performing, SLs, SL2s, and SL2-Ss, available used, would suddenly seem like great bargains compared to the prices of newly imported cameras and the market run on the older ones would proceed with vigor. I paid $1995 for a very, very clean SL2, in the box with all accessories and a warranty. I can only imagine that when the USA government passed (at a minimum) a 25% tariff on German consumer goods (Leica included....) bumping the price on an SL3 from around $7000 to around to $8,750 many people in the market for a well made, new German camera will have hit their limit and walk away. One can only rationalize so much...
But it's not just Leica users who will feel the pain. There are really NO mass market camera makers in the USA and that means just about any camera brand you are interested in will be similarly affected. Add 25% to the top of the line Sony or Nikon cameras and see what happens to sales numbers. Suddenly cameras won't be quite as hard to find on the dealers' shelves but equally suddenly many previous potential customers might find themselves priced right out of the market for a new camera. Or at least the aspirational camera they had really hoped to acquire.
This all happened last time there was a tariff on camera products here in the USA. Prices of used gear, stuff not subject to the new tariffs, went up a lot. Great, recent, used products became much more scarce. Some consumer demands went unmet.
After swim practice today I was reading economic news from around the word and it seems that my thoughts just above are not in any way outlying conjecture. After breakfast I walked out to the office and promptly ordered one more SCL-6 battery (useable in all SL models as well as the Q2 and Q3 cameras) from a favorite retail camera dealer. The battery is currently about $200. I think it's expensive at that price but I'll think it's really expensive at $250 and, I know I'll want one or need one for upcoming projects. A handful of more powerful batteries goes a long way to lightening the load out for solo projects versus hauling extra less powerful batteries. And newer batteries are going to last longer than the old ones floating around the studio.
If I were in the market for a car I definitely wouldn't wait until the tariffs kick in to go shopping. Sure, you might be able to stomach an American brand but if you have a specific German or Japanese model in mind you might find yourself gulping at the pricing after the financial shit hits the fan.
Of course the best position to be in is not to need or want anything, product-wise. If you don't have to or want to spend the money I guess you are ahead of the curve. Until you consider inflation.....
A little stockpiling can be a good thing. Especially if you know that the combination of returning inflation and tariffs are heading your way. The dollar is strong right now...stock up.