An added source to my conjecture: https://www.eoshd.com/2018/09/panasonic-full-frame-mirrorless-camera/
The most impressive camera I've shot with this year is not the Sony A7Riii or the Nikon D850. Without a doubt it's been the time I've spent with the Panasonic GH5S that's made me sit up and take notice. It's pretty much perfect for shooting video and I'm happy with the noise performance up to 3200 ISO; maybe a little bit past.
But as I was laying in bed, counting 50mm lenses in my head, trying to get to sleep in defiance of my insomnia, it came to me that what I'd really like to see in a new camera would be all the stuff that's in a GH5S but with a full frame sensor. I could care less about actual resolution. I would not even care if it was a 10 megapixel sensor as long as it featured dual ISO (lower ISO = great dynamic range; higher ISO = low noise and nice files) and shot the incredibly beautiful video that I'm already getting out of my current GHS. These guys get the idea of hybrid camera technology, and use, better than any of their peers right now.
Can you imagine a beautiful GH full frame with glorious and gigantic 10 µm diameter pixels? With incredible color science, minimal noise and 400 Mbs video files, in camera!!! Sure, the camera would still only have 10 to 12 megapixels but the files would look incredible, and never mushy.
I read the rumors and some people were suggesting that since Panasonic and Leica are partners that the lens mount would be the Leica SL lens mount which would give access to a small but highly respected group of modern lenses. But I'm equally sure adapters would abound.
We've seen the Nikon Z introduction and I think it's pretty darn good for photographers. We're all pretty sure Canon is about to drop their mirrorless miracle on the 5th of September and even Olympus seems to have something up their sleeves.
I'm predicting that what happened to film cameras between 2002-2005 is about to happen to traditional DSLRs remaining in the market. They'll be gone as new stock products the minute mirrorless sales jump the line. Traditional camera users will be as vehement in their resistance as their kind were when facing the onslaught of digital during the waning years of film photography. They will kick and scream and prognosticate about how DSLRs will take decades to recede. But then we'll be reading their blogs three years from now as they tout the amazing capabilities of their XXXXXX brand camera. More telling will be their gushing praise and total allegiance to electronic viewfinders. Brace yourselves DSLR users, you are about to be hit by the wave of EVF. Resistance is largely futile.
Don't like EVFs? Better stock up on (now) retro gear. Those D850s won't last long. That is, if we can actually get them out of backorder status....
Just passing along rumors. Don't want you to go on a Z shopping spree if there's something much better just around the corner.
10 comments:
This is why I don't change brands :) save the body swapping for a couple of lenses to tide me over and just keep working!
I read an interesting thought that they would use the 45mp sensor to do a multi aspect ratio camera... Interesting.
I am curious about olympus' response. They can't just let the market stew for too long so I suspect this long silence will also lead to something.
Counting 50mm lenses, that cracks me up. Thanks for that thought.
Whoa, there, Kirk. To get all the goodness out of those 2-stop bigger pixels you're hankering for, you'd need a 16 bit converter instead of the 14 bit ones used today. And that means a lot slower frame rate 'cause the signal has to settle to 16 bits instead of 14 bits. Might not be that great of a video camera. But if you're taking stills once every couple of seconds or so, you're golden.
These imaging chains are a tower of marble-balancing...
If this APS/C hack ever goes to FF it will be a brand new system for me. A new body and all new lenses, and thus no need for any sort of brand loyalty. I'll buy what feels best in my hands and what makes my heart happy. So, heck yes, give me some choices. The more the better.
I'd just like to remind you of Panasonic's EVA1 5.7K Super 35 video camera with Canon EF mount.
If true, this is Panasonic way to get to 8k video as promised for the 2020 Olympics. So I am expecting a 50ish Mp sensor. Don't think we will see a 12 Mp version, but we might.
You are not buying anything? Who are you? What have you done with Kirk Tuck?
Back to the FF Panny, if real, my assumption is that it is related to Panasonic's absolute commitment to 8K video products for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
Of course, an 8000 pixels wide sensor is not going to be 10 MP, Kirk-who-kidnapped-the-real-Kirk. It is 36 MP on a 16:9 video-specialised sensor, or 43 MP on a 3:2 sensor.
cheers
Arg
I think it would make sense for Panasonic as it would be a clear differentiation of FF and m43. Whereas like the others having FF and APSC the difference in features/size etc may be too close in the future. I have always shot Nikon (for article and gallery work) but 2-years ago switched to Panasonic and really love the ergonomics and photographer-centric controls. All are very intuitive. Interesting times ahead! :-)
A built-in, pick-a-density ND filter, as in the FZ2500, would be one of those (at first glance) little features which lets Panasonic just step right over the competition in appealing to video shooters.
Kirk, I remember many years ago you predicted that EVFs would take over from OVFs and I'm pretty sure I saw another website ridicule them. Well, it certainly seems like you've been proved right and I suspect that you will be right about this as well.
My only concern is the cost. The big switch to digital from film came with sub $1000 cameras like the Canon EOS 300D and the Nikon D70. And they used legacy lenses. I do wonder if Mirrorless will be as dominant as the cost is so much higher and you are expected to buy new lenses as well (although I accept that lens adaptors are available).
And the other concern? As you have shown, a 10-year-old DSLR is an extremely capable tool, so why upgrade? Finally, the market for these cameras is old people (a demographic I am rapidly joining). And I already have enough cameras. I can't see many young people splashing out on these.
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