The Fuji X100V trended on TikTok last year and every influencer with a pulse rushed to talk up the camera and wear one as a fashion accessory. Or maybe the few columns I wrote about the camera back in 2021 fueled an explosion of demand, but whatever the reason the supply chain issues with this product should be long past by this time and the cameras should once again be widely available --- but they are not. Every major retailer is showing "backordered" on their websites. The used market is still a bit frantic with scummy extortionists asking upwards of $2,500 USD for a copy in decent shape. So now I'm becoming quite suspicious.
My first thought is that someone did some deep data mining and predictive analysis with the assistance of A.I., predicted worldwide demand and leveraged their Crypto currency holdings to lock up the entire production output of X100V cameras in early 2022. Now hundreds of thousands of these precious cameras are locked up in a warehouse in Azerbaijan waiting for the apex of consumer desire to bubble over into a buying frenzy at which time the culprits will open an online storefront and sell the coveted camera by the by the train car load for somewhere north of $2000-$2500 each.
My second thought was that Fuji saw how quickly they were able to sell through their first two year's worth of inventory and is playing pretty much the same game. They sit back and blame the "supply chain" even though the processors used throughout the product line are largely identical. This gives them the breathing room and a consumer availability disconnection to buffer their next move. They'll "discontinue" the product and then when there is a global uproar of protest and bitter consumer angst they will bend to popular demand and "relaunch" the X100V, but at an increased price of $2295 per camera. They might, even now, be stuffing their warehouses to the gills in anticipation...
I can just imagine their new advertising campaign slogan: "Nearly as good as the Leica Q3 but only a third of the price." Followed by: "Get yours now before they disappear forever." Echoed in some markets by Ricoh's new slogan for the GR111x: "Not the camera you wanted but the camera you can get right now."
Why would Fuji do this? Mostly to add about $600 of profit to each camera sold. And because they've done their historic business research which showed them that people were willing to pay premiums for Enron stock, a company with no intrinsic value, right up to the bitter end. At least a camera holds some physical, residual value...
This might backfire for Fuji. Leica could drop the price of their surplus supplies of Q2 cameras to $1995, dump em on the market and destroy any future demand for the X100v. But I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen.
Alternatively, maybe the group within Fuji that knew how to make the X100v were all lured away by that camera powerhouse, Ricoh, to work on the next generation of the Pentax APS-C DSLR. Yeah, that's probably it.
Don't get me wrong, the X100v is a very decent camera and, in some hands can be quite a fun picture taking machine. But... a worldwide shortage based on inflamed demand? Driven by TikTok influencers? Perhaps this camera is just the "Chia Pet" or "Pet Rock" of our time, in the camera world.... but unlike those other products is one that requires actual manufacturing instead of just the procurement of.....rocks.
It would be nice if we could buy the X100Vs now. But having owned several I'd peg their real retail value at something closer to $1295. But I guess the cost of rare earth materials like "unobtainium" drives the pricing structure. You can't discount against demand.
The real danger for Fuji is that some company like Sony will wise up and get into the "rangefinder replica" game, come out with an equally "retro" product and snatch the market away from Fuji while Fuji has their eyes on other prizes.... like their "faux" medium format cameras. But that's a whole other story.
Can't wait to see if someone in some large, unnamed country famous for counterfeit products sees the pent up demand and starts flooding the world market with really good knock offs.
Now waiting on Panasonic to bring out their faux rangefinder version. It'll probably be full frame. Won't that be a market disrupter? Especially if it feature lens interchangeability.
Final thought. What if Fuji waits too long and the entire fickle market of trendy camera buyers moves on to Generative A.I. instead? I mean, if your computer can do the heavy lifting for you and then you get to claim credit for a "mix tape" of other people's work why even bother with the drudgery of camera ownership? Or even worse; having to learn how to make good photographs on your own?
Thoughts?
I bought an X100V shortly after it was introduced, used it for a few months, and sold it for a couple hundred dollar loss. A year or so later, they couldn't be found and were selling for the exorbitant prices you mention. I never time the market right... not that I was trying.
ReplyDeleteThe camera is very capable and fun to shoot, as are all the Fujis I've used, but I was always wishing for a bit more reach from the lens. I've thought many times (and voiced a few) someone needs to come out with a full frame fixed lens camera at 40mm, which I think would be my sweet spot. I'd probably keep it in my car as an "always there, ready to shoot" option that runs circles around a phone.
If Leica drops the Q2 to the magical $1,995 price, I'm in (yes, just a dream). I used the Q2 monochrome for a few months and fell in love with it in lots of ways, but 28mm was just too wide. I kept it on the 35mm crop by default. That Q3 is a beautiful camera, but I need to stay married and won't be dropping $7K on one anytime soon. In fact, I need to learn the "less is more" lesson and narrow my choices down to 2-3 50s-60s film cameras and maybe 2 digital, but it's just so fun to play with an assortment.
I'm on the cutting edge of influenced-driven retro cameras. I was rummaging through some old Olympus boxes and found an Evolt 500 Four-Thirds camera. Lo and behold the Kodak CCD sensor is supposed to make Leica owners sigh in disbelief at the rich colors and heart-pumping B&W JPEGs. I have a 25 F2.8 pancake lens. The chromatic aberration is supposed to be wonderful. Can't wait to run the old ORF files through the latest AI photographic tools. Waiting on some batteries.
ReplyDeleteThe scope of Fuji is selling cameras, but may be they are after a new version of all their cameras with the new 40MP sensor: that would be a game changer, and could command much higher prices. Selling the same camera at a higher price would not be a good move for a respectable firm. Sony already has a fixed lens full frame rangefinder-like camera (the rx1) that sports fantastic sensor and lens, and a rangefinder-like interchangeable lens full frame camera ( the a7c), but neither seems very successful. Leica is a niche product. Thus Fuji faces little serious competition in the field, and can borrow some time if the project in store is a good one.
ReplyDelete"Now waiting on Panasonic to bring out their faux rangefinder version. It'll probably be full frame. Won't that be a market disrupter? Especially if it feature lens interchangeability."
ReplyDeleteNikon tried that with the Df. It is a good camera, but I don't think Nikon even sold out the initial production batch because it was overpriced for what it offered. They were selling it for ~ $2800, body only, and around $3k w/ a moderate 50 mm lens, about a decade ago, when prices were lower than today. And the Df's price never dropped, even years after initial release. Add tax and that's $3k+. I think Nikon would've sold a lot more at $2k, but maybe that's just me: I'd have bought one at $2k, but couldn't stomach the $3k price for it. So, I guess, technically, Nikon would have sold at least one more at $2k!
Ken
Ken,
ReplyDeleteThe Df is supposed to be a really good camera. One exception though is that it's a retro SLR type and not a retro rangefinder type. They resemblance to a Leica M rangefinder is, I think, the primary secret to the Fuji's success.
A Leica replacement for people who can't or won't afford an actual Leica...
at a guess knocking 1/3 off MSRP ($3k>$2k) would probably mean that they would have had to sell 2x as many to stand still in profit terms. & from reading Thom Hogan, Nikon management are more keen on keeping their profit margins up v higher turnover.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, If they want to make one with the 40 megapixel sensor then.....where the heck is it?
ReplyDeleteAnd, Sony's RX1 was interesting but only got something like 15 shots per battery charge.... that's why it didn't sell to real photographers.
My guess is that Fuji just underestimated the sales figures. It's notable that there were no supply issues for the first six months or more, maybe they thought things would fizzle out after that and they wouldn't need a second or third production run?
ReplyDeleteSlightly more tenuous guess is that the X100v is a much more significant improvement over the x100s and t models then the f had been, so they sold more to existing x100 owners then with previous versions.
Whatever happened with the X100's, the Ricoh GR's are much better cameras. Unarguable, declarative statement of fact.
What Fuji has that Leica doesn't have is the hybrid viewfinder. A lot of us old farts still prefer OVFs to EVFs and Fuji does OVFs really well. And nobody else puts both the EVF and OVF in the same camera. But...that still doesn't explain the shortage and the exorbitant prices. My guess it's the same thing causing the price of film and used film cameras to be so high--hipster influencers and the birth of New Cool. (I'll take credit for coining the term.)
ReplyDeleteMe? I'm happy with my two old X100S models, multiple X-Pro1 and X-Pro2 bodies and a Ricoh GRII. That should keep me in the In-Crowd but I doubt it. Not until Nikon DSLRs are cool again.
You're right of course, I was thinking retro, not retro rangefinder!
ReplyDeleteKen
I still have my Fuji X100f that I bought at the end of that production run, and still use it. For me the X100-series were never a (real) Leica copy, but more like my old Canonet QL17 that I bought in the 1960's.
ReplyDeleteTo me, the Fuji XPro-Series were the Leica (want-to-be's.) You know, the interchangeable lens thing.....
Just my two pence.....
Lazza
I know it's been offered by some that TikTok convinced people to suddenly buy this model. Bu I think the "TikTok Influencer" reason is an urban legend. Else, every manufacturer of any consumer device would just engage TikTok influencers to sell out their product lines.
ReplyDeleteIn any event, an Influencer-induced sudden craze would fall off just as quickly as it ascended, at least within two years, and make way for the next best current thing.
Two and a half years ago I managed to buy a new X100V at a discount from MSRP via greentoe. And I even qualified for the free high-quality bag that Fujifilm USA was then giving as an inducement on the purchase of an X100V. They were readily available then. Something else changed.
X100s in some variation have been around for, what, almost a dozen years? And no one ever heard of it, or cared, until some rando stranger on the interwebs told them to pay $1400 for a camera when the same consumers were happy with their iPhones five minutes earlier? Hard for me to buy it :-)
Just picked up a bargain GX7, that + my TTArtisan 17mm = 34mm/e fun.
ReplyDeleteWhat was that, Fuji makes something like that too?
But their viewfinder can't tilt.. so I'll be fine with this.
I have a GX8 that I purchased used 4 years ago. It made a good impression on the assistant of another photographer who was carrying a Canon 5 series camera and lens. I’ll keep until Panasonic makes a worthy successor.
ReplyDeleteI bought my X100V almost two years ago, no waiting, no premium back then. When I saw what they were selling for I recently sold it for profit and went back to an interchangeable lens mirrorless camera. It was a very nice camera but it isn't very often that you can sell your used camera fir more than you paid for it. A Leica Q2 seems to be calling me, I will wait for a sweeter deal on that.
ReplyDelete