Opening up old boxes of prints can be like Christmas all over again.
Well, here we are again. First of all, happy St. Patrick's Day!
I'm a little bit amazed to find that I'm still busy. Not with ongoing assignments but with the residue of and billing of assignments completed last week and the week before. I have lists of selected frames of portraits that clients would like for me to retouch and beautify and it's nice to have a bucket of tasks in front of me as I hear about more and more businesses temporarily shuttering. I was surprised when one of my clients in the healthcare field called to see if I was still taking appointments for portraits this month; they had an executive who needs a headshot.
And, in fact, we are still open for business in our own way. We've never had street traffic or walk-in engagements. Everything we do is for an advertising or corporate customer and access to and from us is controlled by that filter.
Even so, when I do portraits in the studio now I follow all the best practices for keeping my space safe. I will even ask the person booking the appointment if they would be less anxious if I wore a face mask. I didn't go out and buy or horde face masks but we did have a big package left over after we did an assignment for an eye surgery ad campaign....
I have hand sanitizer at every critical touch point in the studio as well. And, no, we didn't go out and buy new hand sanitizer we've had bottles around the house and studio, routinely, for years. I guess it makes sense since many of our clients are in healthcare and are more attuned to active prevention.
At any rate, I'm thinking we'll all get through this phase of the crisis in the next few weeks and we'll be ramping back up to a more normal business environment. But we won't benefit in the recovery unless we take steps to do a bit of longer range marketing.
During my long walk (solo-- at least 10 feet away from any passerby) yesterday I thought long and hard about what I should be doing for marketing. It doesn't make any sense to do advertising aimed at pushing up demand in the present. Few people are in a position where they can't or won't wait until stuff settles down a bit. Until the fear is more manageable.
The marketing I want to do is more long term and aimed at keeping myself at or near the top of people's mental lists of visual content creators. Now is the time to tell the small stories about what makes you fun and profitable to do business with. Now is the time to share personal photo projects with clients. Now is the time to catch up and send letters talking about new technologies you offer and new ways of approaching future projects that you've discovered. It's a longer term approach and more aimed at bolstering your brand and name recognition than it is driving short term sales.
I'm also toying with the idea of creating a weekly video and a video channel to support them. The videos would be about various parts of my business and how we do the work. I don't need to be the star and would like to find an appropriate spokesperson to use as my presenter. Being behind the camera gives me a chance to also show off my video production skills.
Even if we just remember to send out fun postcards over the next few weeks it will be helpful in the long run. The worst thing you can do right now for your business is to hunker down and go silent. You need to let your valued clients know that you'll be there when they need you. And that you'll be in the forefront of finding a way to work through the down spots.
Speaking of the down parts: I was sad to get two e-mails yesterday evening. Both were from restaurants that I've enjoyed going to for the last 20 or so years. They were both announcing that they would be closing. One for the "foreseeable" future and the other for "two weeks, or more." Both restaurants together account for a large share of my family's "out to eat" budget every year, both are loved by everyone in my family, and we can't wait for the crisis to run its course so we can help them recover.
To younger readers: The stock market and investing markets seem very scary right now and the values of investment accounts and retirement accounts have had dramatic swings (mostly down) over the last few weeks but....but....if you have the discipline to keep investing on a regular schedule you'll benefit in the long term from dollar cost averaging. It's the process of purchasing cheaper and cheaper shares as the values (temporarily) fall. When the markets recover (hopefully, and historically) the shares you bought at the bottom will help offset your short term losses and will help to restore the value to your financial portfolio. Not yet investing? If you are in business you should already be putting some aside for the inevitable retirement.
Do a Google search about dollar cost averaging to learn more details!
To scruffy, older, wealthier photographers: I have discovered a new index. It's called the "Used Camera Sale Price 1000" and it's not listed on the major exchanges. I've been watching the prices on used (but in 9+ shape) Leica SLs since the financial markets started tumbling. The average price on the average minty, used SL body has progressively and quickly dropped from $2795 to $2595 and most recently has fallen into the $2300 range. I've always wanted one and I'm not afraid to try and "time" this market. Waiting for the price to drop under $2,000 for a mint condition one. Alternately, I guess I could call one of the big, used Leica SL "depositories" and place a bid that's good for 30 days.....
How low will they go? If I miss the bottom of the market I won't shed any tears. I have enough toys to play with for the moment....
Well. I'm getting back to the tasks at hand. A bit of retouching and bit of billing. Hope you are having a safe, happy and productive day. KT
28 comments:
Why spend $2000 on an SL when you are just going to buy an SL2 anyway? The Camerastore in Calgary is getting SL2's in. The last batch they got was 6 and more are on the way. Who knows maybe they are cheaper here too even without the difference in $$.
If you want one call them and ask for Rob. He's the product manager. A great guy, I've known him for decades. Tell him Eric Rose sent you.
Eric
This crisis isn't ending any time soon. Here in Canada the governments are closing schools and daycares until at least September. It's going to be a very rough 12-24 months. Apparently in my province they are taking over Daycares to ensure front line health care workers can get childcare, but that's it. Just having at least one adult stay home to look after children for the next 6 months is going to rock the economy.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/17/21181694/coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years
Speaking of markets did you read the reports that Apple is eyeing up Disney now that it has shed 33% ($65B) of it's value in three weeks? It will be interesting to see what survives and what doesn't. Since Apple would only be interested in the entertainment division it's likely it would sell off the parks, ships, islands, etc once things stabilize. If you had told me 4 weeks ago Disney might disappear I'd have laughed in your face.
I remember when 2001, 2008, etc. all felt like the end of the world and everyone was convinced life would never get back to normal. I give the pandemic 3 months in pain and then a prompt and accelerating recovery. Humans each have only one life to live and won't be restrained or constrained for too long. It's just not at all in our nature. Something will happen. A vaccine, a new way to sterilize public places, a new bargain between freedom and death. I can't know what it is but if Canadians are still in full lockdown six months from now there will be a total revolution.
People will be mostly back at work by June 1. At least that's my take and I'm usually a pessimist.
Eric, I may also get an SL2 but I borrowed an SL from a friend and really like the look of files from that 24 megapixel sensor. The pixels are much bigger and it just makes sweet images. Plus, how often can you get a $7495 camera for $2,000?
One just sold on FredMiranda.com for $1800
Rick
"Canada ... closing schools and daycares until at least September"
That's pretty much the same as what some US States and cities are doing: closing schools until the end of the academic year. I.e., until June; then re-opening in the new academic year beginning in September.
Some interesting contagion simulations found on the Web. Best outcomes seem to occur with fastidious personal hygiene and conscientious social distancing. Next better would be total containment, like in Wuhan.
I don't ever remember the government saying that school is closed for the next 6 months and anyone with a passing grade currently will move to the next grade (or graduate). I guess maybe they could restart schools in a couple of months but how does that work? You go into the next grade, your graduation is invalidated?
I agree that things usually get sorted out, and so will this, but it seems like there is going to be more fallout than usual.
I'm in lucky to be in a privileged position and I'm going to weather this fine (economically) but we just had a news article talking about theatres that are closing for good (already had sunk hundreds of thousands into costumes, sets, etc) and they can't absorb the loss of now box office for months. Frankly I was shocked to see that some small theatres here invest $250,000 into a production. I guess it adds up fast.
Maybe I'm just bitter I have my 5-year-old under foot for so long (it would be great if I didn't need to work).
I am so sad for our theater. I'll be fine financially, and I'm sure theater staff above the line (management) will be fine in the mid to long run, but the hourly workers who've really done so much work and made the theater so successful will be out in no time looking for another job. It doesn't feel fair.
But life is rarely fair.
Another aspect is politics. In Israel the government is using the corona crisis as a reason to prevent parliament and the courts from doing their lawful job. The prime minister corruption trial had been postponed to unknown date by the law minister who assumed expanded authorities to himself. The head of parliament from the rulling party is preventing his own replacement by refusing to convene the general assembly.
Your USA elections are soon - BE PREPARED
Yoram, I think it is a foregone conclusion that Trump will try to institute martial law and cancel elections here in the US. At least until they've appointed all the new, conservative, federal judges that Mitch McConnell wants to put in place.
Then there's the almost compulsory bailout of resorts and golf clubs....
Well, in Israel we went from putting returning citizens into quarantine to full "shelter in place" with schools and universities closed, moving to online courses in less than a week. Along the way a government with a majority and without Netanyahu actually formed, but the law courts decided to close and delay any trial on his three bribery indictments. That's not very different from the US Supreme Court deciding that the health risk was too great to hear about Trump's tax forms in time to have any resolution this year. But that's all above my pay grade. I took my last outdoor picture for some unknown time this morning. Left my phone behind, since I'm registered as in quarantine and they do track phone. But the health service came to the door this evening to perform what amounts to a drive-thru COVIN virus test, and I feel fine so expect to pass.
I had theater tickets for a large group of us next week for a semi-pro production of Chicago, that by all reports, was outstanding but was cancelled in the middle of the run. The house refunds all payments for shows that didn't happen. My friends who are involved tell me that they have a small rainy day fund that may leave them short for next year's production, so they have simply turned to a charity request that lets people pay for their tickets if they choose to. And they did run one "last night" show for a tiny invited set of guests, with three video cameras running and proper sound capture. I hope I get to see it.
I'll back up Eric Rose. If you are hard-hearted enough there might be great deals by now on the SL2, and it is a whole different camera. Same great colors, even more natural in use, and good video. As long as you power externally with an AC adapter (the one from your S1R will work fine) you can do 4K or 5K with internal recording, and have some 10 bit internal options as well. An external battery pack should also work. So video which is comparable to your S1 loaded with the enhancements, and those 48 MPx in addition. You've already got all the lenses you need (except for that APO-Summicron 50 or 75 that will come about Christmas time, when the economy is surging back...)
Interesting points about the stock market. And enjoy your Leica SL , personally I am putting equipment purchases on hold.
While there seems to be panic, this thing will blow over quickly. I give it 4 weeks at the most before the governments pull a victory lap and business starts to pick up.
No way this goes to September, and I will stand behind those words.
I feel many are forgetting their high school mathematics. Exponential growth, that's what is the scary part of this virus. If people behave themselves and don't succumb to "my needs and wants trump your health" mentality then with with social engineering we will enjoy a relatively quick turn around on this. However the key word is "relative". I think we will be still feeling the restrictions on freedom of movement well into the summer. Check out this link for a great graphical representation of social distancing. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Kirk, I really hope you're right but I think you may be underestimating this thing about the three months/June 1 and the comparisons to 2001/2008. For one thing, 2001 had a specific, human cause, and 2008 just needed lots of money pumped into the system to grease transactions and re-boot the economy. Even then, that took a lot of time and effort and caused a lot of economic pain to a lot of people (myself included).
This virus is unknown to human bodies, seems to be fairly contagious (including by asymptomatic individuals) and has a high death rate compared to influenza. If commerce grinds to a halt and is forced to stay grounded for a few weeks, it may take quite a while to get things up and running again. I've seen numbers thrown about that suggest China's economy contracted by > 13% in 2020 and its consumer spending declined by > 20%. Anything close to those numbers in the U.S. would punch the economy hard on the nose.
But then, alas, I am not an optimist by nature.
Ken
But all the hand wringing aside, that's a beautiful photo at the top of the blog post! Nicely done.
Unfortunately, Kirk, this isn't going to be over in a few weeks. What we're experiencing is just the beginning. Numbers are going to skyrocket in the coming weeks and health care systems will be overloaded. Expect heavily populated areas like NYC to get hit hard. I'm not being an alarmist. This isn't like SARS at all. While it's true that the vast majority who get this won't die, the problem lies in how we have to fight this pandemic. Social isolation and distancing, restaurants, theatres, clubs, any places where people gather are going to be shut down. Everything is going to have to come to a screeching halt and when we resume there will be many casualties, in the business sense. This pandemic is going to financially ruin many and I'm not talking about stock portfolios. Incomes for many have already dropped to zero. People are already suffering financially. Jobs will disappear and won't be reappearing when it is over. Businesses will disappear. Governments will have to assume massive amounts of debt to try and support their citizens. The good news is we will recover from this, collectively at least, and we will be wiser and better prepared for the next one. I don't mean to fear monger but I found your post just a touch on the flippant side.
What I find More scary than anything is how fast smart people are using new lingo, new words, and prescribing absolute belief in something they have no real understanding of.
There are just a lot of people who needed a vacation I guess.
CRSantin, No doubt that the pandemic will cause incredible disruption and pain --- beyond the disease itself --- but we only have this one life to live and I refuse to live it in fear and inaction. I'm not going out and milling around in public, spreading the contagion, but if there are ways to keep going forward I'm hopeful I'll be able to find them. Solo walks are not banned or advised against. Use of cameras, the same.
Given the poor and late response of the US government it may already be too late to avoid tragedy and widespread loss of life. Even with the best practices it might not be able to keep infections low enough to not overwhelm the healthcare system.
My income, after these few jobs get billed, will also drop to zero but unlike people who work for companies and institutions I'll have no recourse for unemployment insurance etc. I'll have to survive by my own wits and whatever planning I did in advance. But I have no faith in governmental institutions to save us. It was only 12 years ago that greed and governmental blindness caused a recession that reduced the quality of life for many, many people for the rest of their lives.
I'm still not sure we know what to expect but I anticipate that brilliant people will find solutions and they will come quickly.
If not, I have a stack of novels to read next to my chair and a fully charged laptop for pounding out another book or two. But I won't give up to despair and dysfunction. Not on my agenda.
You probably aren't being a fear monger but I am not going to change my stripes. I want to poke at stuff and ask questions and at the end of the day I want to HOPE that this too shall pass. I'm not ready for the world to end. Not now.
ODL, I agree. I think we are in the "unknowable" part of the crisis. We may find we did EVERYTHING wrong. From the get go. A break to go out and photograph might be just what the (future) doctors recommend.
My workplace just added 2 weeks vaca time into to my vaca till and outright said if you feel the need to stay home do so. No repercussions. All this is a concerning mess of confusion but I cannot help but feel this is bringing us all closer and more unified.
I plan on going out with my Leica M5 and some Ilford B&W film to photograph what is or isn't going on in YYC. Empty business districts, closed bars plus people getting out as families and actually doing stuff together. The good, the bad and the ugly. Great time to do documentary photography and maybe some video stuff too.
The times, they will be achanging. What better time to get out and create a record of it.
Eric
Eric. That's the spirit. Moving forward. Making sense of it all. Documenting an inflection point for civilization. Same.
A friend of mine at UTA sent me this:
"Friends in Germany tell me that in light of all this uncertainty there has been a run on sausage and cheese throughout the country. Some have characterized this as the wurst käse scenario."
Stay well and keep your humor. The prophylactic measures that are being directed in the Bay Area will help slow the spread of the virus and shorten the time until we can get back to our normal lives. Those in the service and creative sectors, although burdened now, will benefit as well.
I had intended to sell a bunch of stuff a few weeks ago but no way for a while now. As far as the virus and the economy goes, my hope is that things look better as summer arrives. Still, there is a report in the Times today that the government is preparing for a possible 18 month haul. Possibly though, when having the virus around becomes the new normal, we will bounce back to some degree.
I recently saw an article that for social distancing to work and bring down infection levels to match available healthcare resources we'll have to "shelter in place" for up to ten years. So much we don't know yet.
Ouch!!!! Naw they have begun clinical testing on humans. We will see what we are capable of in the next few weeks.
I think our capacity for achievement has been dormant and we are about to get a dose of what makes us so resilient.
Keep well Kirk.
If you can find a used SL at a decent price, I think you'll like it. It's built to go the distance, and I found this week that the exterior finish can take a scrubbing with Lysol Disinfecting Wipes without going off-song.
I don't think the coronavirus pandemic will end soon, though. If USNS Comfort pulls into Elliott Bay in the next few weeks, I'll know we're in big trouble.
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