And, in an instant, all the big shows were cancelled into the foreseeable future...
Being a freelance artist means riding the financial cycles like a surfer riding waves. Sometimes you wait in the water with your board for hours till a great wave comes by and other times the waves are too choppy and the water too cold to venture off the beach.
The COVID-19 virus, coupled with some tricky Russian oil market shenanigans, just triggered a sell off on Wall Street which should cause concern for everyone who works for a living. Especially for those who are self-employed and doing something that's (short term) not mission critical for the clients they serve.
The fear of contagion just shut down the biggest yearly event in Austin. SXSW brings in, according to the city of Austin, nearly $355 million dollars to the local economy. That's all gone now and it's not recoverable. For many small businesses there's no way to make it up. Some will tighten belts and some will fade away, buried by bills and salary expenses.
If the country goes into recession in the next few months then this will be the fifth or sixth recession I will have navigated in my working life as a photographer. Each was different and each was the same. The decline of assignments starts early and then accelerates. After an awkward % of the business dries up and vanishes then the remaining clients start aggressively price shopping and, while some of us dig in our heels and pass on projects with too low a price tag attached, there are generally legions of artists who are scared, panicky and hungry enough to chase the market for their services to the rock bottom.
I scraped and starved through my first recession and learned just how much more valuable having some money in the bank was than having the latest miracle camera or life-changing lens. We started tossing about 10% of our profits into savings accounts and liquid investments. With each new recession we were in better shape than in the previous ones and the panic around us pounded in the message of how important it is to save for a rainy day. Or year.
This potential recession might be short. It might be long. But from a business point of view it's already following the traditional pattern: the freelancers are the "canaries in the coal mines." The assignments have started vanishing left and right. We'll be the first out and the last in for the recovery and, for the first part of the recovery we'll probably be struggling to get our pricing back up to a sustainable level against the pushback of clients newly trained to expect more for less.
I've positioned myself as a portrait photographer for wealthy business people. It's the last market in photography to dry up. I'm still booking portrait work. Event work is more skittish. The cancellations just after the SXSW show cancellation are stacking up. The calendar is becoming more porous, like Swiss cheese.
So, What will I do???? Well, for starters I think I'll not panic. There are several older cameras I've been itching to try out along with those old Olympus Pen FT MF lenses I keep writing about. I have my eye on a used Panasonic GX-8 but I can't decide if I want one in silver or in black. If you shoot with a GX-8 I'd love to read your mini-review and get your thoughts about it. I know all about the "shutter shock" stuff but I'm interested in learning how the I.S. is and how you like the handling...
Next up, I'm itching to buy a Leica SL2 but they seem not to be shipping at the moment and no one seems to have stock. In the meantime I'd love to hear from people who've shot with the previous model, the SL. I know they are different cameras altogether but I'm assuming that lots of the handling DNA will be similar and I'd love to hear stories about what separates the images from mortal cameras.
As you know (and part of my huge, sinister plan) the Panasonic Lumix S Pro lenses are interchangeable with the Leica lenses so my total investment, if I want to dip my toe back into Leica-dom, is just(?) the cost of a body. If my ship ever comes in maybe I can cherry pick one or two Leica lenses for the ecosystem. That 50mm Apo Summicron at $8,000+ looks like just the thing to totally disrupt someone's retirement account....
And, if you are dumb enough to take financial advice from a photographer then
here's my strategy as sketched out on a paper napkin over coffee:
Wait for the Dow Jones Industrials Average to hit 21,000 and then dump
a bunch of cash into a Vanguard Stock Index Fund.
then, grab my favorite camera, go for walk and ignore the market for a while.
30 comments:
My financial strategy is very similar. It's fire sale time!! Buy buy buy!!!
I just printed an Ilford FP4 neg in the darkroom. The shot was of my grand daughter climbing a tree in one of our parks. The camera was my Leica M4 and the lens a Summicron 90mm set to f4. Absolutely spectacular! As you mentioned with your 50mm, very 3D and the important details are in focus. I've never been fond of the "wide open" and be there thing.
Eric
Your readers should start a pool (betting, not swimming) as to when that DJ 21,000 mark will be reached.
As I have mentioned here several times before, as I visit your blog mostly daily (and thank you for making that possible!), I have and love a GX8 with a grip-strap that has become the key ingredient in my air travel kit went visiting far-away places. It mostly wears the 14-140ii (the pairing for which I cannot successfully discriminate their image quality from that of the GX8 with an Oly 12-40 Pro used over the same focal lengths). That travel kit also includes the Pany 7-14, and 100-300ii (for birds), plus sometimes the PL25. As full disclosure, I also have and love even more the great Pany G9 bought especially to pair with the PL100-400; since I live a couple of hours north of Bosque del Apache, I wanted that pairing for cranes, snow geese and other critters I may encounter by car travel along life's path. That kit also includes the Pany 70-100 (mostly used when hiking) and the 12-40 Pro (which I find too front heavy for the GX8...ymmv). Regarding your question on IBIS, for this nearly 73-year-old, I find both kits to hold all of the stability necessary for most uses without the need for a tripod (which I have several). For example, I have used the GX8 with the 12-40 (for its f/2.8) while wandering the neighborhood at night taking photos of interesting porch-light lite doorways and have not seen any shake in the resulting images. I hope that helps. Mostly I use the electronic shutter, avoiding the shutter shock problem, but then I rarely shoot videos. I hope that helps.
"What for the Dow Jones Average to hit 21,000 and then dump
a bunch of cash into a Vanguard Stock Index Fund. "
Kirk, you give excellent financial advice, , Very solid advice for "set it and forget it" crowed.
Vanguard is great - shareholder owned, cheapest rate in all areas including. Simple DIY website.
To enhance Kirk's model. Let the Dow (DJAI 0 30 stocks) just work as an indicator and open a vanguard account.
I left Vanuguard because they don't support options traders very well. Vanguard is a great choice for the inactive participant.
Once you've set up your account and studied the conservative approaches. Then give Kirk a new piece of photo gear.
If you want to learn how to be an investor. Read Rule Number One by Phil Town.
Best wishes to all of you,
Mark
www.MarkMorrisProductions.com (investing link)
I find that when I want something that I don't need (which is about 90% of the things I want) if I wait a few weeks the desire goes away.
Sorry I don't have any direct experience with a gx8, but I have used similar (or the same) sensors in Olympus cameras. The image quality was good in reasonable light, the lens were generally good and light (other than the pro line). The menus were horrendous, but that's just Olympus, plus I'm not a professional who uses the camera every day.
Hey Kirk, great advice for finances. I was never any good at the business side of things, and the woman I'm married to, wonderful as she is, is not as practical as your wife. Hence I have a full time gig making photographs, and I freelance. But if the freelance drops off, I don't have to worry.
As far as the GX8, it handles like a real camera and has a fantastic viewfinder. I had two and sold them to get GH5's. I tried to replace them with a GX9, but it was too small and had the same useless-for-glasses-wearers viewfinder. So I sold that and got two more GX8's to go with my 3 G9's.
I find the IQ every bit as good as the G9. What I do miss is the full time IS, but the version that it has is fine, even with longer lenses. I use it with primes that don't have built in IS and don't have a problem, even an adapted Olympus OM 135 f2.8, which is so far the best of the bunch that I've tried, and that includes the Canon FD, Zeiss Contax and Nikon F varieties.
As a carry around camera with the lovely 20mm f1.7 or the PL 25, it's small and discreet enough so as not to be a nuisance. It's my main travel camera too, and is always with me when I'm not working. And sometimes I will use it for jobs too in place of the G9 bodies.
There is enough room for your hands to find a place to rest without hitting buttons all over the place, and also big enough that holding it all day won't cause your hands to cramp up like with the GX7 & GX9 bodies. Even if I use it with the generously proportioned 10-25 or the 50-200, it's very comfortable.
It feels like a well designed tool in your hand, like it was meant to be used for a purpose. Nice heft, well made, solid, but not stupid heavy. And the batteries last a long time. On a job I can get over 2000 frames on a battery when shooting events. In practice it uses juice about the same as my G9 with the much larger batteries.
As far as the shutter shock, I've never seen it. Not with the earlier bodies or this current set. I do remember that Panasonic came out with a firmware update that supposedly remedied the situation but using a first curtain electronic shutter at certain speeds. I have that enabled but never notice it in practice, Electronic shutter is not a good thing when used under some artificial light sources, so I stick with mechanical only and do not have a problem. Ever.
It's a good camera.
Mike
Despite the seriousness of it all I personally am still optimistic this will all blow over. There was no reason for the economy to tank this time other than fear factor driven by an obsessed news media. My condolences to those folks who's income depended on SXSW.
I too have been eyeballing the GX8 but am having to much fun with a recently purchased OMD5ii to care :)
Thought I'd start up the betting pool for the Dow Jones at 21000. I'm going to say March30th. 2020.
Michael: overleveraged corporate bonds, P/E ratios too high, VIX at all time high numbers, no wiggle room left in the fed rates (except to zero), etc.
Only about the gx8. I had one but became crazy about the position of the display button on the back. Everytime I unattended touched it with disappearing of the live view. After 2 month I sold it again and now use the gx7 again that I had before. I saw that on the gx9 the disp button is now placed somewhere else.
I've been self employed since 89 and have made it thru 3 recession. My line of work is a bit different (engineering consulting) than a photographer as you typically only have 1-3 customers in a given year (large long projects typically). This makes you particularly vulnerable as you can be busy as heck one day and have zero work the next day.
Early 90s recession wasn't too bad due to one large customer who kept me bust thru the early part of it. 2001 recession (when it started for the tech world) was brutal and in the tech world everything was dead for several years. Very painful. Very slow recovery and I barely survived. 08-09 recession, very painful for most, was easy for me. Key on that one was having Uncle Sam as a large customer as he apparently never has a recession.
I learned early on to save the extra $ when things are good. Engineers at the companies I have worked for regularly ask me what they need to do to be a freelancer like me. First thing I ask them is if they can go 6-12 months with no income. That usually dashes their hopes right there.
Cash flow. Anyone in business needs to be intimately familiar with that term. Large negative cash flow with small amounts of cash on hand is a sure way to die during a recession.
Short version: the GX-8 is simply the most satisfying 'photographer's camera' Panasonic has ever made.
I say this as a former Leica and Pentax diehard, but almost everything about the GX-8 speaks to beautiful design, underrated quality, and its oh-so-hard-to-define feel in the hands. And, yes, it has the best EVF of any mirrorless camera I have ever used, bar none. Shutter shock is in my experience...non-existent and a non-issue.
From what I've heard, the GH5's have and had some slightly better video capabilities - but for pure stills shooting, it is a wonderful camera. It's also relatively speaking a 'deal' compared to the prices of many other Lumix's.
But take the above recommendation with a big grain of salt, because (confession follows): I like slightly eccentric photographic tools.
I truly enjoy (and have enjoyed) shooting with my quite smallish and Leica-like Olympus Pen F.
And I really like my Pentax KP (the baby brother to your K-1 but definitely smaller and a tad more quirky, in spite of its superb high-ISO performance. And heretical as it may sound, my tiny all-in-one Canon G1x Mk III seems nicer to me than many of the smaller Leica's of the past few years...
But it also has some workhorse-like qualities to it. When you just need one camera, with maybe one nice smallish all-purpose but high quality zoom, the GX-8 always seems to get the job done. (It mates nicely both with some of the Lumix Pana-Leica branded lenses, and the higher end Zuiko's of recent vintage, but heretically speaking again, one of the nicest all purpose zooms for the GX is Panasonic's smallish Vario 12-35mm with its fixed f 2.8 aperture, a surprisingly compact but fine lens whose built-in O.I.S. combined with the GX8's in-camera stabilization system, allows fine hand-holding at astoundingly slow shutter speeds.)
Bottom line: it does so many things so well, but in addition to its swiss-Army-knife nature, it's also (STILL) really rather fun to shoot with.
Hello Kirk,
I've had a Panasonic GX8 since 2016. The tilting viewfinder and flip-out LCD are winners here. I've not experienced shutter shock: my recollection is that it occurred with just a few lenses, one being Panasonic 14-140mm. I recall a firmware update to fix that.
The many custom mode and function button settings make it easy to have presets for different photographic situations.
These days, I am using the camera mostly for wildlife with Panasonic 100-400mm lens. The DUAL IS has been a great feature, as is the electronic shutter.
With the lens balanced in my left hand, I can easily access the controls on the camera with no problem. I find the buttons, etc, to be nicely arranged. Ergonomics is subjective, of course, so one needs to evaluate for himself/herself.
I can not think of anything to complain about with this camera.
I have no intention of upgrading to a different MFT camera.
Richard Jones
I am also optimistic. While long term low interest rates have caused a lot of market distortion the pro growth, pro business approach of the current administration has led to a very strong job market. One vaccine later and all of this uncertainty will dissipate.
As to the low oil prices, again this is a bit of a market overreaction as natural gas has become an important energy resource. Saudi cannot keep this up for long either as their oil revenue pays for the stability of the country.
Love my GX8 -- good to see I'm not the only one. Love the tip up finder and articulated LCD. Love that the design keeps my nose away from the touch screen. Have not had any problems with the alleged "shutter shock," at least no more than with some other cameras I have used. I do find the shutter sound annoying slightly ragged and annoying. I use electronic shutter a lot.
The only thing I really dislike is the dedicated exposure compensation dial. In my opinion dials on digital cameras should be programmable. When shooting A mode I'd like to have compensation under my thumb. When shooting manual I'd like to have a dial for ISO. But I live with it.
For daily use I pair it with the "kit" 12-60 f3.5-5.6, or sometimes the Panasonic 20. For work I use the Olympus 12-100 f4. I used a friend's Pana-Leica 12-60 for an afternoon and decided I was happy with the kit version -- the difference amounted to 1 or 2 points of clarity in ACR.
Love the camera but wish Panasonic would upgrade with a smoother shutter.
As to the economy and the virus, I'm in hunker down mode. I'm abut 90% retired and what little I earn is for luxuries -- necessities are pretty well covered. At my age, even if it gets really bad odds are I'll die before I run out of money. Or if I live longer odds are the economy will recover before I run short. Wish me luck.
Kirk, I love your blog, your passion and your insights. I ever read your novel. I do wish you would always stick to what you know, because you know so much, and not venture into areas where you don't actually know that much, "The COVID-19 virus, coupled with some tricky Russian oil market shenanigans." I realize that in the US Russia bashing has been a popular sport for years, but that throw away line is not knowledgable. You normally fight ignorance and bigotry in the the photography world, and in life. So please keep up the good work, and avoid when you can stating things that really are much more complex.
Rube
Hi Rube, Explain to me where I am wrong.
Kirk, The Saudis had a lot more to do with unstable oil prices then the Russians. Russia refused to lower production when the Saudis demanded it, for Russia's own national interest (in their own view of course). They rely on the sale of gas and oil, are not a member of OPEC, and certainly must be allowed to set their own national policy, exactly like the US does. I would not call these ' tricky . . . shenanigans.' Nor would I call the Saudi's new policy of producing more oil now a 'tricky Saudi shenanigan.' There is no actual evidence to show that a major Russian policy objective is disturbing the US economy either. Yes, the main stream media does indeed push this idea, but certainly does not make it true.
Why not just say that markets are currently unstable, and not blame it on the Russians?
So, Rube39, Where do you get your news? I find it very odd that there would be a global decline in demand for oil and that two of the major producers would choose that time period to radically drop the price of crude. Even more coincidental is that the announcements and price drops tracked the sell off in worldwide equities markets so precisely. I think it's pretty obvious that both parties are looking to price out shale oil production in the US and blunt oil production in Canada while at the same time the Russians are trying to destabilize the other middle east producers in order to exert much more control. Just because US policy is also not spotless and keenly moral doesn't excuse other bad actors. Plus, the Russian government pretty much sucks. And, yes, I am "just" a photographer but have studied economics, follow the markets, traveled in Russia and consider myself very well read on the subject.
Now, tell me again how I'm supposed to stay in my own lane?
If we can only convince the major camera makers to drop all their prices by 20 to 30% across the board due to the slow down of camera sales caused by the economic slowdown wouldn't that be wonderful? Please be sure to send one of your informative notes along to Leica. Maybe I can get a thousand dollars off an SL2...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/world/europe/russia-saudi-oil.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2020/03/07/russia-yanks-a-leg-from-us-shales-three-legged-stool/#5b816c6720a8
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/putin-sparks-an-oil-price-war-and-us-companies-may-be-the-victims.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-us-shale-oil-producers-are-at-the-heart-of-the-saudi-russia-price-war-2020-03-09
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/11/14/us-shale-overtake-russia-oil-gas-production-a68168
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/9/1925752/-Putin-dumped-OPEC-and-started-oil-war-to-kill-U-S-oil-production-Stock-market-taking-huge-hit
https://www.lemonde.fr/blog/petrole/files/2017/01/HSBC-peak-oil-report-2017.pdf
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3893871
Kirk, it is your blog, do as you wish.
Only three comments in reply:
1. Where I don't get my 'news' is the Western Corporate Press.
2. I agree, the Russian government certainly sucks, as all large governments do. Including of course the American (Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Bolivia, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Nicaragua, Afghanistan), and the Saudi (I used to work there, so even have first hand experience).
3. I didn't say you were 'just a photographer.' Why would I do that? You are a writer, a novelist, a small businessman, a swimmer, a family man, and the list goes on. I also never meant to say 'stay in your lane.'
Again, it is your blog.
And I a faithful reader. Grin
Kirk, your citations are from the MSM, and/or hangers on. You certainly did not have to go to all the trouble of citing them. I know what they say. I just don't believe them, do not think that they are at all objective, and believe they have their own Establishment bias and agenda. Who, after all, owns them?
You have a different opinion, that is fine with me.
I go out and shoot everyday, rain or shine. Just like you. Only I haven't gotten paid for it for a few year now. Grin
But I live in Pamplona, in a different world I guess.
Rube
Okay. Sounds good. Plus, living in Pamplona must be fun! Thanks, Kirk
I honestly have no idea what will happen over the next year. This feels unprecedented. Italy has just ordered all non-essential businesses to shut down. But for how long? Supposedly this virus will stick around for over a year as we learn to deal with it. It looks like we will have to switch to some kind of emergency command economy if the US winds up like Italy.
Looks like I was a bit overly optimistic about the market making it to the 28th before dropping under 21000. Maybe tomorrow? And sub 19000 by the end of April? On the sidelines....
Yes, I thought, Kirk's going for the 28, I'll just go further away and take the prize. Now I'm not so sure...
DOW 21,000 doesn't look hard at all now. Problem is that doesn't appear to be adjusting to different calculations of future income, just reacting to signs that there still isn't a plan.
Previously owned Leica SL and SL2s should be a buying opportunity now or soon. The SLs have been rather cheap for almost a year now. And there are rumors of SL2s available used for way below new cost. Both good cameras, which use your L lenses and render colors very similarly, but they handle rather differently (I use both). The buttons on the SL are very programmable, using both long and short presses to do different things, but take some getting used to. Same idea, implemented quite differently but more logically on the SL2. So switching from one to the other is not as easy as with the S1 and S1R, And you will either love or hate the SL APO-Summicrons, but they are exceptional lenses. They all work identically on the Panasonic platforms, so try one out. Maybe they will get more affordable, too (but I wouldn't hold my breath).
add to previous thought -- there is a big improvement in AF performance and flexibility in the SL2 over the SL.
and on a later post -- isn't the late appearance of the principal portrait subject Murphy's Law rather than Moore's?
One itty-bitty wee point: the virus is SARS-CoV-2, and the disease that it causes is COVID-19 (COrona VIrus Disease 2019), just like HIV is a virus, and the medical condition that it causes is AIDS.
The SARS bit of the name should be making everyone pay attention.
I win the pool. We're firmly under 21000 today. (march17). Sadly, there is no prize for winning....
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