I've usually bought new cars and driven them for a good long while. Most of the them last me up to about 100,000 miles. I do the recommended maintenance and try to keep them from getting too scuffed up. I know there is a school of thought that recommends driving them until they fall apart around you as a way of maximizing your "investment" in a car but since I use my vehicle to get to and from jobs reliability is a big issue for me and I find that 100K mark is where all the sub systems start to go south.
I'm the kind of car owner that changes the battery at 3 years even if it's cranking strong. I just don't want to be the guy out in the parking lot on the first cold night of the year looking around to see if anyone has jumper cables. I also replace tires long before you get to the tread wear indicator. It's better in my mind to leave some money on the table rather than getting stuck out in the middle of nowhere with nothing but the little, tiny spare and 100 miles to go...
I've owned all kinds of cars but in the last decade the two that make the most sense for my business and my personal life have been the small SUVs. I don't particularly like the "thrill of driving" the way I did when I was a reckless teenager with a 1965 Buick Wildcat and a taste for speed. The roads are so crowded here in Austin - where I spend 95% of my driving time - that the idea of ultra performance is a joke. There just are no uncluttered roadways with great curves that you can test out the imputed G force capability of your automobile. They no longer exist. Open roads in Austin are at the same level of impending extinction as fax machines.
My current car is a 2019 Subaru Forester. It's got a modest but adequate 182 horsepower, 4 cylinder engine. It's all wheel drive. It's perfect for tossing in light stands, big cases full of lights and lots and lots of camera gear. It's even got a roof rack for those times when you really need to bring along more gear than you should. I bought the car with great expectations but the pandemic came along and limited my driving.....a lot. I've had the car for two years and three months and I'm just now coming up on 16,000 miles on the odometer. Or an average of 8K per year.
When you take your new car in for the free two years of service it seems that the Subaru dealer keeps tabs on the condition and mileage of your vehicle. About six months ago I started getting offers from Subaru's guaranteed trade in program offering me a new, 2021 model for about $4000 plus the trade-in of my car. I ran the numbers and that's actually more generous than the private resale value of the car.
I sat down with my pocket calculator and did some conjecture math. When I hit 20,000 miles with the current car I planned to buy a new set of tires. As I said above, I don't try to squeeze the very last mile out of tires, I replace them when they still have good sidewall flexibility and structural integrity. There's about $1,000. We'll have two routine maintenance visits to the dealer during any given year at about $150 each for $300. We might have to replace other stuff. And there's always the (remote) possibility that something expensive, like the entertainment/control interface electronics could fail. I'd put aside $2,000 over the next two years just to cover the unexpected. We're already close to the difference in cost between keeping the existing car or getting one that's two model years newer.
Then you might consider depreciation. The older car will obviously have a lower resale value given its age relative to a car that's two years newer and two model years newer. That's not a small amount.
Finally, the 2019 marked the introduction of a new chassis design and body changes for the Forester line. Nothing ever goes exactly to plan for a complex machine like a modern car and I'm certain that there have been a number of unannounced changes, modifications and improvements that will all have the effect of increasing net reliability in the newer model. While dealers can't fix as much stuff in cars as camera companies can with firmware updates in cameras the trade off is that each new model year car makers can fix the stuff that was found to be "off" in the previous year or years.
So, here I am with an almost new car in my driveway trying to decide whether or not to go for the trade up. As I understand it the profit for the dealer is more nested in factory to dealer rebates, the ability to order more product to get better discounts, and the fact that recent, low mileage vehicles that are popular are easy to move quickly.
In effect, I'll spend $4,000 or maybe a bit more to get a car that's two years newer, hopefully mechanically and electronically improved, has a start the clock over again new two year warranty and free maintenance for the next two years. And, as I've said a couple of times before, reliability is a big, big issue with me....
I know that some of you are more informed about cars and car stuff than am I and I welcome feedback. Is there a hidden "gotcha" that I haven't been able to figure out yet? Does this seem like a rational thing to do? It's not as if I'll need a loan or have to make payments; it's my intention to write a check for the amount.
I really like my current car. I really like the idea of replacing it with the same model, but two years newer.
If it doesn't work out as projected I really have no problem sticking with the current car. But if it does work then I'll have a big smile on my face for about two more years. Just trying to plan smart.
Your take?
38 comments:
I'm normally one of those holding on to cars until they really begin to fall apart. My last car, a Toyota Camry I purchased used and owned it for 20 years. My current car, a 2005 Prius, I bought used and have owned for almost 8 years now. Both reliable, with relatively low maintenance costs (so far, with this one).
All that said, the Subaru Forester (owned by my companion) is a fabulous vehicle. If I were in your shoes, the calculation you make makes complete sense to me, and I'd trade in the current car for a new one, for exactly the reasons you enumerate. (Forester was my second choice after the Prius, the last time).
Like you I normally keep new cars for a long time, however if you can really trade a 2 year old car for the exact same car but new for only a $4K loss I'd do that in a heartbeat. Now one other expense you may not be figuring in is sales tax, title and dealer fees. For say a $30K new car in VA that will run you about $1500-2000 more. Still even at about $6K it is not a bad deal. I figure a $30K car driven over 10 years might be worth $5K at the end of that period. That's $2.5K a year. Normally most of that total loss comes at the beginning so it still sounds like a good deal to me especially if you're coming up on some expensive maintenance soon, plus you'll have 2 more years under warranty.
Used car pricing is crazy and I don't know who is going to buy your used Forester at a price so close to new but that's not your problem.
You have 16K miles on your Forester? My Outback didn't feel like it was broken in until it hit 40K. I'm also in the drive it until the doors start coming off camp. I've heard that unless you abuse a Subaru, you can expect at least 200K with regular maintenance. I wouldn't know, as I donated my last Outback to charity at 180K and it was still running like a top.
Like cameras, cars are becoming more and more like computers with each passing year. I have two friends that recently purchased Subarus and they both complain about the learning curve on not one but two console screens. My wife and I often say our next car purchase would be what we call "The Basic", which is a new retro car that has rollup windows, manual door lock posts, levers to slide the front seats up and back, etc. Manual things rarely break and when they do they cost so much less to replace than the electrical versions. The deal you describe sounds like a good one, however, if your current and for all intents and purposes new Forester isn't broken, why fix it?
I don't think I've ever bought a new car without feeling ripped off by the dealer. Nothing you don't know here, but dealers are in business to maximize profit - so I guess my question would be: what is in it for the dealer after "overpaying" for your used car? It sounds like a money losing proposition or at best a break-even proposition for the dealer. So why would they bother? I guess just make sure there are no hidden last minute charges or upsell attempts involved.
Ken
Without looking at any numbers the default should be to keep driving your current low-mileage car. Depreciation is greatest in early years and your Subaru isn't likely to present you with any maintenance surprises.
If you want to do a little more work, find out what Carmax or other "used" car dealers are willing to pay (cash!) for your Subaru compared to your dealer's offer. It may be that cash to you from Carmax and cash from you to your Subaru dealer will cost you less.
Aside from age and miles on the clock, does the new Subaru have any features that your present car is missing? Features that are important to you?
By the way, you will be paying sales tax and other fees (state and possibly local) on the new car and it ain't pocket change.
Which vehicle will you be happy with in your pending retirement years. Mileage went way down for both our cars at that point! Just a thought to ponder.
All good advice. thanks!
The old standard was once 100K miles. That was before Japanese cars showed US makers how good a car can get. The new standard is about 200K. I drove my (used) 1999 Toyota Solara to 216K miles, and only traded to a 2010 Toyota RAV4 in 2015 because my aging knees couldn't handle the contortions required for entry and exit any longer.
HOWEVER ... you are describing a good deal with your Subaru. I wouldn't overthink it.
Maybe you should just ask Michael what to do...
Well Greg, I would. But he's a fan of sedans and I can't fit a nine foot roll of seamless in any sedan I might want. Then there's his affection for manual transmissions. But I drink coffee, sometimes even when driving and shifting, steering and swilling are contraindicated. Imagine me in a Miata, seamless paper strapped to one side, sloshing God's finest liquid achievement around all over the interior and hitting stuff left and right as I pull both hands off the wheel to deal with the coffee and shifting priorities.
I'm afraid MJ's advice might be a bit skewed.... Remember, I'm a "working" photographer.
Kirk
In my state if Ohio they deduct the trade in value from the new car sticker price before charging state sales tax. If Texas is the same trade in the car and get the new one tomorrow.
CDC
As I've gotten on in years, too many to mention, I've come to enjoy leasing instead of buying. A new car every 3 years just when things could start to happen and the tires need replacing, etc. Does a lot for peace of mind, if not for the bank account.
Dick
My first reaction: You want to sell a two year old car with only 16,000 miles, really?
Including taxes, $6000 seems like a more realistic "What if?" cost.
FWIW, if it were me, I would keep your current vehicle.
16 year old Mitsubishi Colt - 160.000 miles. Have only changed the battery once.
Next car will probably be electric. VW ID4 or ID3 or an Audi if they come up with a cheaper model than the e-tron :-)
Test drive the new one before you decide.
Hi Kirk, you talked in another post about increasing the distances you drive at the moment. Surely that's an argument for getting the new car with the extra reliability of it being new? 650 miles - wow! Here in the UK, I'd be looking at train travel for that sort of mileage but I guess trains aren't an option either (non existent plus Covid)?
Nigel
What is...."a train"?
I don’t think a guy who keeps buying Leica cameras and lenses needs help rationalizing any expense. But, here goes. Despite the apparent profligate waste in abandoning a perfectly satisfactory car with only 16,000 miles on it, this looks like a good move. If the true net cost to you is $4,000 plus a sales tax of...what, $250?....that’s equivalent to a lease cost of about $175 per month. Not bad, even for a promotional lease deal. I have no idea which would fit your business use tax situation better, leasing or owning. But as long as your business use share of total mileage may be decreasing in the future, long term ownership may be the ticket. Buy it. You can get it guilt-free using the $5,000+ you chose not to spend on another Leica lens recently.
I wouldn't replace a car I'm happy with. But that's just me. After a few years I also got rid of comprehensive insurance which saves quite a bit. Have you considered insurance implications?
You've done the math, so I won't get into that. I was at a Subaru dealer last week and while there, took a quick look at a new Forester that they had on the floor. It looked quite a bit different than it did a few years ago and I would bet that it drives differently also. Assuming that you've driven a new one, and like it, go for it.
The dealer, who had no reason to BS me, told me that they were moving cars like crazy and had just been advised that allotments were being cut because of production delays (chip shortages). I am a big Subaru (the "national" car of New England)fan - just turned in an Ascent (too big) and got another Outback. I also had a 1965 Wilcat, new at the time - huge, very fast and a great highway car. Ate gas like crazy, but it was only about 25 cents a gallon back then.
I have a reliable source who tells me that he fits a 9-foot roll of seamless in his Mazda CX-9. It has to come up between the front seats, of course, but it fits. Like my old Volvo 740, which could similarly accommodate a few rolls that way. That Volvo, by the way, was the best photo transport I ever had, with its no-lip rear entry, its totally flat boxy interior. I carried a ton of gear in that car. But as soon as it started needing repairs, oh, boy.
But you've given me an idea for a short film, along the lines of Roman Polanski's Two Men and a Wardrobe. I take a 9-foot roll of seamless out to the Miata, tie it to the luggage rack and set out through the streets of Boston.
Considering that electric vehicles are up and coming, the resale value of your future new Forester will be questionable. Therefore, how about considering leasing instead of buying. I went from a Subaru Imprezza to a Honda CR-V which I'm liking a lot, but if I was buying now I'd also look closely at the Toyota RAV-4. So I'd say look around at some other options before you decide to just buy what you had again. Good luck!
How about putting a big Red Dot on the hood of your current Japanese car. Problem solved!
Really though much of your depreciation just occurred in the last 16,000 miles. Do you want to go through that again.
Rich Americans. Money to burn.
"In effect, I'll spend $4,000 or maybe a bit more to get a car that's two years newer, hopefully mechanically and electronically improved, has a start the clock over again new two year warranty and free maintenance for the next two years."
Sounds like a good deal to me. The difference in cost between a new SL2 and a good used SL, approximately.
Kirk, does your current Forester have automatic start-stop? That's a fuel-saving measure that, under most circumstances, turns the engine off when the vehicle is motionless and you're on the brakes (such as while waiting for a light at an intersection). The new Foresters all have it. I don't know if your 2019 does. If it is the case with your current car and it doesn't bother you, fine. But if you don't have it, make sure you drive the new Forester before buying.
Personally, I feel auto start-stop doesn't save much fuel at all, is annoying and can be potentially dangerous. That's because it still takes a beat for the engine to restart - and if you're in the middle of an intersection with traffic bearing down on you, it can unnecessarily create close calls. There ways around this. Perhaps your dealer will disconnect the feature if to request it. Most won't. There are also devices you can purchase allowing you to turn it off permanently. But they involve installation, etc.
I'm also not a fan of Eyesight or most active "driver assistance" technology. But I'm sure you have Eyesight in your current car. If it doesn't bother you, fine. I have a 2016 Forester with 40-thousand miles on it. I have been repeatedly presented with generous trade-in offers by Subaru. But the absence of Eyesight and auto start-stop on my 2016 prevent me from buying a newer one. If and when my current car becomes unreliable, I'll deal with the question of what to buy at that time.
Hi Biro, The auto stop start is indeed present in the 2019 Forester. But...there is a button on the left side of the dashboard which disables it with one push. I routinely start the car, put on my seat belt, release the parking brake and hit the auto stop/start button to disengage the "feature." It's habit now. Properly ingrained.
As to eyesight... I believe the feature has saved me from at least causing five rear end collisions. It can also be turned off but the automatic braking is a great safety feature. Lots of ways to turn stuff off.
The new car will also have steering following headlights which I think is cool. I'll drive one and see if there's anything I don't want to live with.
"Rich Americans. Money to burn."
It's actually just Texans. We just get up in the morning and go tap the oil wells in the backyard.
Oh. If only Leica were to make a small SUV.....
As others have said, $4000 and a bit of tax to get a new car is very good. I'm surprised that there is only a 2-year warranty, somehow I thought they gave you more but it's not like I pay a lot of attention.
I completely understand wanting to stay ahead of the problems, but 3 years for a battery is too cautious. I start to think about it at 5 years and I live in a cold climate where we have a second set of wheels, winter tires on rims. If you're worried about expensive components failing after only 2-3 years (in normal times), you should think about purchasing extended warranty from the dealer (stay away from third-party after market warranties). As more and more electronics are stuffed into cars, this matters more and more. Electronics are very reliable, but if you get stuck with a gremlin, debugging those issues can get expensive fast.
Also, it sounded yesterday like you expect to be driving more than in pre-Covid days to avoid airplanes. That makes a newer car that much more attractive.
HI Robert, The standard warranty on this model of Subaru is, bumper to bumper for 36 months or 36,000 miles. I was mistaken when I wrote 24 months or 24,000 miles. That's for the free maintenance in the U.S. market. The power train is covered for five years or 60,000 miles. So, I have another ten months of complete warranty available. This is good to know.
You comment caused me to go and recheck. And I appreciate that.
Sorry for the misinformation.
As to batteries. The heat in Texas is a battery killer. You can see it in the weeks after a high temperature spike. People are lined up at Costco and other battery dealers to bring in dead batteries to exchange. It's bizarre. But if it's 110° in the shade then the black asphalt we drive on can easily get to 130°. Merciless on batteries, hoses and belts. Batteries aren't very expensive. But I do get your point.
I hope we're driving more but we really want to be traveling as well. So much pent up travel demand!
Electric is the way to go. 1/4 the cost of "fuel", no maintenance other than tire rotation and replacement. My Model 3 is three years old and has 85,000 miles. No maintenance costs. No Maintenance costs (I know, I said it twice). There will be dozens of new electrics available in there next two years at pretty much every price point. The whole world is going electric (and it has to if humans are to survive). Imagine Austin without the noise and pollution of gas and diesel engines.
If you are driving far often I would not go electric. I have a Polestar 2 and love it and mostly charge overnight in my garage, but have kept my Peugeot diesel as well..
Charging times is a challange - and access to supercharger networks (150k watt pluss) is a must for long trips. Batteries are like having a small petrol tank, filling it with a straw that gets smaller and smaller as the tank (battery fills up). 30-60 minutes to fill the tank :-)
I have a towbar on both cars but pulling my two motorscycles on a trailer with the Polestar is a no-go - its a wonderful towing vehicle but the drain on the batteies makes it a nok go for anything but short trips.
Problem will not be solved before we have radically new battery technology.
Hi Kirk,
If your current automotive maintenance/replacement schedule helps you sleep at night, then you should probably stick with it. Similarly, if you'll feel more comfortable with the new Forester, and the cost difference relative to your finances is not prohibitive, then go for it.
Having said that, as a lifelong S.O.M. (son of a mechanic) and a practicing ecologist, I feel obligated to say that you're operating as if automotive technology hasn't progressed since the 1960s, and you're using resources in a highly profligate manner.
All the moving parts and mechanical bits that used to wear out in 100K miles will now easily last 250-300K miles with appropriate maintenance. Despite the increasing "computerification" of cars, basic maintenance is still relatively easy to do yourself. As an example, it takes me longer to get my jack, jack stands, and tools to my car (damned 4th floor Covid apartment) than it does to rotate my tires. Oil changes are similarly easy. Or, just support your local economy and pay someone else to do the maintenance for you.
As others have mentioned, your 2019 Forester with 16K miles is barely broken in. Your tires with 20K miles have years of service left, unless you have some secret street racing or drifting fetish you didn't mentioned, and your battery will most likely be good for several years as well. If you're worried, most auto parts stores will test the health of your battery for free.
Yes, you can have mechanical or electronic issues with any car, but in general failure is most likely to occur at the beginning of the life cycle or far off in the future. If you haven't had any problems with your 2019 Forester, I would wager that you're more likely (note: still very unlikely) to have a problem with a 2021 Forester than with your current car, for which you already have 2 years of hard evidence of proper performance and reliability.
As far as all the electronic "aids" on modern cars, it's great if they help prevent accidents, but I would respectfully suggest that if you've needed auto-braking to save you from multiple rear end collisions you might want to examine your behavior and where you attention is focused when you're behind the wheel.
pretty much jibes with why I changed my last car (at that time 6 years old) for the current one a year earlier than I had expected to. Car went in for a service & whilst I was waiting was looking at current updated version of same basic car. Was offered a price that was a no-brainer to me given maintenance costs that I knew would be upcoming & depreciation trends on diesel-engined vehicles here in the UK at the time - essentially it cost me no more to switch 1 year early. I also knew that that particular model (which suits me perfectly) was coming to the end of it's production life & wasn't being replaced with a direct equivalent - as the saying goes a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush so I jumped.
Sadly, a year of largely lockdown here in Scotland has really limited it's usage - even lower than yours!
My son, now 50, hasn't bought anything but Subarus since he was in his 20s. He's also a reliability freak, since he spends a lot of time driving around in the desert Southwest. He routinely takes his Subarus to 150,000 miles; he says that after that, you may have some maintenance to do, but before that, you don't. Of course, toward the end, you're driving an old car and even the snowflakes are dissing you.
My niece just bought a Subaru with 160,000 miles on it, and paid $7,000. For a two year old car with only 16,000, I suspect the dealership with polish it up and sell if for almost the new price. Not quite, but very close, maybe a couple of thousand off the original price. If they're offering it to you for $4,000 over, you *know* they're going to make money on the deal somehow, and it'll probably come out of your hide.
All that said, I do like new cars, and I personally would probably go for it.
The numbers make sense to me. I say go for it. Maybe check on your auto insurance. New vehicles are always more costly to insure than older vehicles. There shouldn't be a big jump on the new vehicle but double-check so there are no unpleasant surprises.
Currently driving a 2020 Forester. Our 4th Forester. Best car ever. The auto turn off thing - restarts before I can get my foot from brake to gas. So.. not sure how/why it could be a safety thing. But, maybe just how I drive. Anyway, get the newer. The safety features, rear cameras, super intelligent cruise control, et. al. Oh yeah, we put 160-200 k on before moving up, never any real problems with that. (so far)
Kirk,
Like you I try to keep a car maintained and running for a while. Rather than mileage, though, my measure of when to replace it is based on a sense of "do I trust it" under trying circumstances. If it fails to start a couple of times when I'm out late at night or on weekends, when it seems sluggish, when key features don't work regularly, etc. For me it's just a source of transportation for me and my gear (sound familiar?) so I don't want to spend brain power wondering if this is the trip where it will fail me. Once it lets me down, it's gone. Sorry this is qualitative but I'm guessing you get this sense as well based on your description. Having said this, if you still trust your current car, keep it.
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