Does anybody really win in a declining market?
I love all the conjecture about the Nikon cameras that are to be announced on August 23rd. I can tell you exactly what to expect. You'll get bodies that have a grip something like the D750; big enough to hold comfortably and conformed to a real human hand. If that is the only difference between Nikon on the presumptive front-runner, Sony, then we photographers will have already won because we'll enjoy holding the better designed camera in our hand and the benefit will accrue for years and years; we'll enjoy it every time we handle the camera! Which means we'll want to handle the camera more and more often. It's a joyous circle in which good haptics creates the desire for more contact. Why Sony was hellbent on the pixie proportioning of the A7 series cameras is beyond me ... especially since they got the body configuration just about right on the RX10 series cameras.
And good overall industrial design delivers more benefits than just handhold-ability, the bigger grip means more space for a bigger battery which will go a long way to making a transition to the new cameras more "operationally" seamless to current Nikon owners. There is comfort in knowing that the freshly charged battery in your camera will probably last you through a day of shooting plan your day's journey through the streets of some fascinating city.
I don't doubt for a minute that Nikon will deliver color and tone characteristics that will please a large number of users and those users will have an easy time with post processing. It seems that color science is still more magic than science and there is some argument to be made that the longer a company works on delivering top notch results the better they become at it.
It is widely suggested that the new body will bring a new lens mount into play. Let's count on it. And I would argue that they did this to be unfettered by physical restrictions arising from the narrow diameter of their long running F mount. Expect to see announcements about a bevy of much faster primes and zooms made specifically for the new camera. There is already a rumor about the introduction of a new Nocto Nikon 58mm lens with an f-stop faster than f1.0. I predict they'll follow Sigma's lead and start introducing selected short range zoom lenses with apertures of f2.0 as well. That should be a fun shot across Sony's bow.
The flagship camera will use the newest full frame sensor; either the one in the D850 or an altogether new sensor in the same pixel count range. Nikon will concentrate on making the magnification optics for the EVF as good as they can be in order to make the viewing experience better than most of their competitors. They will even let you, the buyer, know that they've nano-coated every element in the magnification chain to maximize quality.
The final feature that makes any difference at all to end users will be the addition of full frame 4K video with plentiful choice of codecs, including one that delivers 60p 4K at full frame and the option for 10 bit 4:2:2 at that high frame rate. My hope, more than the changes in video codecs, is that they'll finally make in camera audio world class. Quiet and precise audio pre-amplifiers that are also capable of healthy gain levels.
So, if this all comes to pass, will the Nikon be "better" than the upcoming Canon or the pre-existing Sony competitor. Yes, probably. At least for a month or two. But with the exception of handling differences the range of quality image performance is very, very small. There just isn't much difference between the quality of the raw files amongst any of the big three, full frame camera makers and I don't expect that to change.
Whether or not you buy the new Nikon mirrorless cameras will come down to just a few things: Do you like the way the camera looks and feels better than the cameras from Nikon's competitors? If so, you're probably a candidate. Do you have an enormous inventory of Sony or Canon lenses that you like? If so, I bet you'll throw shade on the Nikon and wait, anxiously, for your chosen supplier to step up and match the Nikon entries. Will there be a unique feature in one company's cameras that you can't or won't live without? Not very likely, all three camera makers seem to leapfrog each other in some sense but the underlying performance difference across the brands are subtle, ephemeral and almost unmeasurable.
With all this in mind I'd predict that this move will, at least temporarily, improve Nikon's market share (in a declining market) and most of the share will come from Canon. Canon will then launch their equivalent product and it will steal back share from Nikon. If both Nikon and Canon learned their lessons from watching the mirrorless evolution they will certainly use their strong photographic brand equity to steal back lots of market share from Sony. If the imaging performances achieve parity it will then be easy to win back that market share from Sony. All Nikon has to do is put a better designed and better handling camera into people's hands to remind them of what a great pleasure photography can be.
Ditto for Canon.
Say what you will about the dinosaurs but I've experienced this first hand. The Nikon D850, 810, 800 and all the way back to the D700 are much more comfortable cameras to shoot with for extended periods of time. The fascination for tiny camera bodies is waning. Rational choices will be made. But it may be too late for an industry that is shriveling toward inconsequential. For the rank and file non-enthusiasts the results are in. Smart phones have already won. The big three camera makers are just squabbling over the carcass.
Note. Professionals will still want and need higher quality cameras and may be able to market the look of full frame images as a USP. They'll still want certain kinds of cameras. It's the vast midrange that will vanish.
Just a few thoughts about a week out from the introduction.
One more certain prediction: The web will be on fire with hand's on reviews, previews, spec analysis, and endless debate within seconds of Nikon's NDA's timing out. A quiet and empty time for those of us not ready to go into full on gush mode about a couple of new cameras.
D700 looking pretty swank to me.
There are a lot of reasons for Nikon to introduce a new mount for their new mirrorless system, but widening the throat is clearly not the main one. The biggest reasons, I think, are (1) a new mount will be required to support the shorter flange distance of the new mirrorless system; and (2) a new mount will allow Nikon to finally stop building support into their camera bodies for the F mount's legacy mechanical connectors and the old in-body AF motor. It's true that the new mount also gives Nikon an opportunity to use a wider throat, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do that, but it's a secondary benefit of creating a new mount, not the main reason to do it.
ReplyDeleteNikon or someone else will surely produce F-mount adapters for the new system, but I would guess these adapters will not include an AF motor; it would add bulk and increase cost to support a subset of lenses that already don't work on many Nikon DSLRs. This could leave Nikon shooters in the interesting position of having adapters that work well with 1959-1986 manual-focus Nikkors in stop-down metering mode (you don't even need the mechanical lugs to do that), and also with the 1998-present AF-S lenses, but not so well with 1986-1998 AF lenses that require the in-body AF motor.
I agree with you 100% about Nikon needing to do a better job with video in this upcoming mirrorless system. Nikon can make and has made cameras that produce good video, but it takes some effort to do so with them. The Nikon V1 has been my main video camera for five and a half years, albeit I wish it had some upgraded specs. 4K at 60fps looks like a good direction for the new mirrorless system to go. (Heck, 1080p @ 60fps would be an improvement for me.) Better audio pre-amps and built-in microphones sound good too. (The V1's built-in microphones were actually pretty good as far as built-in microphones go, and sound from external microphones into the V1 can be very clean, IMO. The V1 contained some interesting, hidden engineering that was never really appreciated. The new mirrorless cameras can improve upon that.)
ReplyDeleteBetter codecs would be expected in an upscale mirrorless camera, and I hope they add them. But it would also be nice to see various resolutions and frame rates offered. Some of their cameras, like the D7500, have digital on-sensor stabilization that can be an "okay" alternative to most IBIS systems that physically move the sensor. Digital or physical sensor-based stabilization would be very welcome. And let's not forget better, more-reliable video AF, for those of us who can't afford to hire a "puller".
Thom Hogan has for years criticized the camera makers for not improving the workflow of getting images to their ultimate destinations. My wife stopped downloading images from her smartphone to a computer and then posting them onto various websites once she found that she could do so directly via her phone. Two years ago she wanted to get her own Nikon DSLR - now she is content to just use her smartphone, which has a very good built-in camera. I admit that I would be more inclined to share some of my DSLR images and mirrorless-camera images if I could edit, correct, and upload them more easily.
On a final note, I have to admit that your recent posts have me looking at decent used copies of the D700, D800, and D800E that are available at my favourite bricks-and-mortar camera store at prices ranging from a new D5600 to a new D7500. I love old, well-built cameras, but the practical side of me asks if I would really get photos and videos that are any better than what my D7000 (a great photo taker) and V1 currently get me. The practical side of me tells me to put my money instead towards a camera with newer and better video and AF specs. Decisions, decisions!
Two thoughts, last one first: Your personal fascination for smaller cameras might be waining but overall Sony is doing just fine. We'll know more about this in a year or two when larger body Nikon and Canons are on the market and consumers have had a fair chance to vote for a winner.
ReplyDeleteFirstly, if this confirmed APS/C hobby/hack/enthusiast ever goes to FF, or if a DSLR owner ever migrates to mirrorless it will be a whole new system and any lenses we have in our collection will be more or less irrelevant, thus making any idea of brand loyalty or any sort of sunken investment in lenses seem just silly.
Good points.
ReplyDeleteAgree that modern cameras are so close to one another I am not expecting a big performance difference.
Personally, I think if nikon is going to hit a home run with this release, they MUST have an affordable adapter that allows for people to simply mount their existing F mount lenses on to the new mirrolress cameras and enjoy ALL the benefits.
If they don't do that, then I don't see a major point in making a new mirrorless camera.
Now, we could say this is a new MOUNT camera, and it just happens to be mirrorless, and the whole point of the camera is to enjoy the benefits of the new mount diameter (i.e., faster lenses). The F Mount has been around for a long time, and despite being tried and true, many people think it is time to move.
One thing (maybe two things) I will predict: The lenses for the new Z mount will be big, heavy, and expensive (is that three things???) Unless Nikon has somehow managed to change the laws of physics, wouldn't making a fast (f/.95) be big and heavy?
Hey - I am loving, loving the D700 I recently purchased but even I admit I miss a good EVF. I can't believe how much chimping I am doing when out and about. A like to a lot of what some would call "reportage" and I have to say the EVF is just the best invention. I know that because I miss it when I use the D700.
ReplyDeleteMind you, the D700 files are just lovely.
So maybe a Nikon mirrorless would be nirvana. I find myself hoping it will "only" have 12-16mp. Not a chance of course because the market still thinks more=better.
I am one of those that small and light is good, a heavier camera can not be held for longer periods of time now. That being said I still have an old Fuji S3 that I still use every so often, a 50mm Nikon and 24mm Sigma with mostly the former. For the new Nikons to be considered they would have to have something special that I would find useful in a camera. It will sell well if the adapter they make for the F mount AF lenses works like they do on a D810 say. The mount starts with a lot of lens choices missing unless they surprise everyone and release 10-15 lenses at the same time. If either Canon or Nikon release a good line up at time of launch they will get good traction.
ReplyDeleteWell here we go again. I need that new wiz bang toy, hurray more MP more bells and whistles new lenses $$$$$$$$$ I need it, I can't take pictures without it. What will people say at the camera club if I don't have it, I need it, I need it to be hole.
ReplyDeleteIn the mean time the working photographer will keep using what they have and doing great work at fair prices because they don't have the expense of new gear to support.
How much difference will you see between the D700 and the new toy when your showing your work on flickr??? Zero. How big do you need your prints for your gallery showing??
This and cell phones are why the DSLR market is declining. People a getting tired of buying. For cost of this new camera I can buy a lot of film for my important shoots. My 2 D700 are working fine as are my Sigma SD15, SD1 and SDQ-H. Not to mention my Minolta 9000, F2AS, F5, SA9 SA7n, a Plustek 8200i scanner, a HP 24 inch designjet printer, my Bogen, and my speedotron black line lighting (they still work fine).
Put me in coach I ready to play.
We'll see soon. 8 days and counting.
Roger
I just want an EVF and something to mount lenses on....Oh, and a big battery. Oh, Oh, and a nice grip. That's it.
ReplyDeleteDon't underestimate the importance of the adapter to the initial adoption of Nikon mirrorless cameras from the Nikon faithful. Not having a good adapter which allows the mounting of Nikon AF lenses would be a tough pill to swallow. It's too much to ask for the faithful to purchase the mirrorless body along with a couple of new Z-mount lenses.
ReplyDeleteThe building excitement of the impending release of Nikon's new cameras plus the expectation of a Canon response is churning the waters of must-buy-stuff swamp.
ReplyDeleteYes, the new cameras will have features never before seen on a Nikon or Canon. Yes, we will sty up all night debating the choices made by designers/marketers/geniuses/idiots that rule our photo fantasies.
In the end, all the stuff that made us tingle in expectation will be seen as so much "so what?" in two months time.
So yeah, I will read the articles. But I know that after the first few days of playing with a new toy, it will take its place along side the other toys enjoying my affection but not necessarily my favoritism.
Well said. At this stage in the product maturity cycle, I don't expect any earth shattering differences. However, well designed haptics and a rational menu system will be key. I don't expect Nikon or Canon's professional mirrorless beasts to be small retro-styled ranger finder-esque cameras like the Olympus PEN-F or Fuji X-Pro2.
ReplyDelete